Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits probabilities across upper-50s outcomes—57°F or below at 26.5%, 58-59°F at 24.0%, and 62-63°F at 19.0%—reflecting ensemble spread in NOAA GFS and ECMWF models projecting Chicago O'Hare highs in the mid-to-upper 50s°F amid post-cold front conditions. National Weather Service guidance cites cold air advection from northerly flow behind a departing front, combined with lingering showers and heavy cloud cover through Friday into Saturday morning, capping temperatures near the April 4 normal of 54.4°F while limiting diurnal heating. Differentiation hinges on shower cessation timing and clearing speed: prolonged overcast favors mid-50s peaks, quicker breaks enable low-60s. Watch this afternoon's 12z model runs and NWS updates for refined consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Chicago on April 4?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 4?
57°F or below 27%
58-59°F 21%
62-63°F 20%
60-61°F 17%
$47,132 Vol.
$47,132 Vol.
4 avr. 2026
57°F or below
27%
58-59°F
21%
60-61°F
17%
62-63°F
20%
64-65°F
11%
66-67°F
5%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76°F or higher
<1%
57°F or below 27%
58-59°F 21%
62-63°F 20%
60-61°F 17%
$47,132 Vol.
$47,132 Vol.
4 avr. 2026
57°F or below
$5,548 Vol.
27%
58-59°F
$3,558 Vol.
21%
60-61°F
$4,019 Vol.
17%
62-63°F
$3,680 Vol.
20%
64-65°F
$3,355 Vol.
11%
66-67°F
$3,821 Vol.
5%
68-69°F
$5,203 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$4,447 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$6,133 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$2,449 Vol.
<1%
76°F or higher
$4,928 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits probabilities across upper-50s outcomes—57°F or below at 26.5%, 58-59°F at 24.0%, and 62-63°F at 19.0%—reflecting ensemble spread in NOAA GFS and ECMWF models projecting Chicago O'Hare highs in the mid-to-upper 50s°F amid post-cold front conditions. National Weather Service guidance cites cold air advection from northerly flow behind a departing front, combined with lingering showers and heavy cloud cover through Friday into Saturday morning, capping temperatures near the April 4 normal of 54.4°F while limiting diurnal heating. Differentiation hinges on shower cessation timing and clearing speed: prolonged overcast favors mid-50s peaks, quicker breaks enable low-60s. Watch this afternoon's 12z model runs and NWS updates for refined consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
Volume
$47,132Date de fin
4 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 4:52 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits probabilities across upper-50s outcomes—57°F or below at 26.5%, 58-59°F at 24.0%, and 62-63°F at 19.0%—reflecting ensemble spread in NOAA GFS and ECMWF models projecting Chicago O'Hare highs in the mid-to-upper 50s°F amid post-cold front conditions. National Weather Service guidance cites cold air advection from northerly flow behind a departing front, combined with lingering showers and heavy cloud cover through Friday into Saturday morning, capping temperatures near the April 4 normal of 54.4°F while limiting diurnal heating. Differentiation hinges on shower cessation timing and clearing speed: prolonged overcast favors mid-50s peaks, quicker breaks enable low-60s. Watch this afternoon's 12z model runs and NWS updates for refined consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$47,132Date de fin
4 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 4:52 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits probabilities across upper-50s outcomes—57°F or below at 26.5%, 58-59°F at 24.0%, and 62-63°F at 19.0%—reflecting ensemble spread in NOAA GFS and ECMWF models projecting Chicago O'Hare highs in the mid-to-upper 50s°F amid post-cold front conditions. National Weather Service guidance cites cold air advection from northerly flow behind a departing front, combined with lingering showers and heavy cloud cover through Friday into Saturday morning, capping temperatures near the April 4 normal of 54.4°F while limiting diurnal heating. Differentiation hinges on shower cessation timing and clearing speed: prolonged overcast favors mid-50s peaks, quicker breaks enable low-60s. Watch this afternoon's 12z model runs and NWS updates for refined consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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