Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago's highest temperature on April 6, with late-model runs from GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering implied probabilities around 48-51°F amid persistent cloud cover from recent rounds of showers and thunderstorms through April 2-3. Cool mid-level temperatures aloft from a departing Canadian air mass limit diurnal heating, while southerly boundary-layer winds introduce variability—slight model differences in mixing and afternoon clearing could push peaks one bin higher or lower. Normal highs near 55°F are suppressed by overcast skies; watch NWS updates and 12Z model refreshes Friday for resolution shifts before the event.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Chicago on April 6?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 6?
50-51°F 24%
48-49°F 23%
46-47°F 18%
52-53°F 17%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
6 avr. 2026
41°F or below
1%
42-43°F
1%
44-45°F
9%
46-47°F
18%
48-49°F
23%
50-51°F
24%
52-53°F
17%
54-55°F
11%
56-57°F
7%
58-59°F
3%
60°F or higher
2%
50-51°F 24%
48-49°F 23%
46-47°F 18%
52-53°F 17%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
6 avr. 2026
41°F or below
$755 Vol.
1%
42-43°F
$98 Vol.
1%
44-45°F
$96 Vol.
9%
46-47°F
$117 Vol.
18%
48-49°F
$110 Vol.
23%
50-51°F
$155 Vol.
24%
52-53°F
$143 Vol.
17%
54-55°F
$221 Vol.
11%
56-57°F
$127 Vol.
7%
58-59°F
$276 Vol.
3%
60°F or higher
$937 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago's highest temperature on April 6, with late-model runs from GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering implied probabilities around 48-51°F amid persistent cloud cover from recent rounds of showers and thunderstorms through April 2-3. Cool mid-level temperatures aloft from a departing Canadian air mass limit diurnal heating, while southerly boundary-layer winds introduce variability—slight model differences in mixing and afternoon clearing could push peaks one bin higher or lower. Normal highs near 55°F are suppressed by overcast skies; watch NWS updates and 12Z model refreshes Friday for resolution shifts before the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 2, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$3,035Date de fin
6 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 2, 2026, 6:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago's highest temperature on April 6, with late-model runs from GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering implied probabilities around 48-51°F amid persistent cloud cover from recent rounds of showers and thunderstorms through April 2-3. Cool mid-level temperatures aloft from a departing Canadian air mass limit diurnal heating, while southerly boundary-layer winds introduce variability—slight model differences in mixing and afternoon clearing could push peaks one bin higher or lower. Normal highs near 55°F are suppressed by overcast skies; watch NWS updates and 12Z model refreshes Friday for resolution shifts before the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,035Date de fin
6 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 2, 2026, 6:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago's highest temperature on April 6, with late-model runs from GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering implied probabilities around 48-51°F amid persistent cloud cover from recent rounds of showers and thunderstorms through April 2-3. Cool mid-level temperatures aloft from a departing Canadian air mass limit diurnal heating, while southerly boundary-layer winds introduce variability—slight model differences in mixing and afternoon clearing could push peaks one bin higher or lower. Normal highs near 55°F are suppressed by overcast skies; watch NWS updates and 12Z model refreshes Friday for resolution shifts before the event.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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