AEMET's latest municipal forecast for Madrid projects a maximum temperature of 22°C on April 3 at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport—the market's resolution station—with calm winds and 0% precipitation probability enabling strong diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies. This drives the trader consensus favoring 22°C (43% implied probability) slightly over 21°C (38%), reflecting ensemble model outputs from ECMWF and GFS clustering around 21-22°C amid a high-pressure ridge bringing above-average spring warmth (historical April highs average 18-19°C). The razor-thin margin stems from short-range forecast uncertainty in afternoon cloudiness and boundary layer mixing, which could cap peaks at 21°C if insolation diminishes; real-time observations will clarify by late afternoon.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Madrid on April 3?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 3?
22°C 43%
21°C 39%
20°C 10%
23°C 10%
$24,387 Vol.
$24,387 Vol.
3 avr. 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
2%
20°C
10%
21°C
39%
22°C
43%
23°C
10%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
<1%
22°C 43%
21°C 39%
20°C 10%
23°C 10%
$24,387 Vol.
$24,387 Vol.
3 avr. 2026
16°C or below
$2,522 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,483 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,505 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$4,096 Vol.
2%
20°C
$2,992 Vol.
10%
21°C
$2,220 Vol.
39%
22°C
$2,556 Vol.
43%
23°C
$2,714 Vol.
10%
24°C
$1,517 Vol.
1%
25°C
$1,238 Vol.
<1%
26°C or higher
$1,544 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.AEMET's latest municipal forecast for Madrid projects a maximum temperature of 22°C on April 3 at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport—the market's resolution station—with calm winds and 0% precipitation probability enabling strong diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies. This drives the trader consensus favoring 22°C (43% implied probability) slightly over 21°C (38%), reflecting ensemble model outputs from ECMWF and GFS clustering around 21-22°C amid a high-pressure ridge bringing above-average spring warmth (historical April highs average 18-19°C). The razor-thin margin stems from short-range forecast uncertainty in afternoon cloudiness and boundary layer mixing, which could cap peaks at 21°C if insolation diminishes; real-time observations will clarify by late afternoon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 4:11 PM ET
Volume
$24,387Date de fin
3 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 4:11 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.AEMET's latest municipal forecast for Madrid projects a maximum temperature of 22°C on April 3 at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport—the market's resolution station—with calm winds and 0% precipitation probability enabling strong diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies. This drives the trader consensus favoring 22°C (43% implied probability) slightly over 21°C (38%), reflecting ensemble model outputs from ECMWF and GFS clustering around 21-22°C amid a high-pressure ridge bringing above-average spring warmth (historical April highs average 18-19°C). The razor-thin margin stems from short-range forecast uncertainty in afternoon cloudiness and boundary layer mixing, which could cap peaks at 21°C if insolation diminishes; real-time observations will clarify by late afternoon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$24,387Date de fin
3 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 4:11 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...AEMET's latest municipal forecast for Madrid projects a maximum temperature of 22°C on April 3 at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport—the market's resolution station—with calm winds and 0% precipitation probability enabling strong diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies. This drives the trader consensus favoring 22°C (43% implied probability) slightly over 21°C (38%), reflecting ensemble model outputs from ECMWF and GFS clustering around 21-22°C amid a high-pressure ridge bringing above-average spring warmth (historical April highs average 18-19°C). The razor-thin margin stems from short-range forecast uncertainty in afternoon cloudiness and boundary layer mixing, which could cap peaks at 21°C if insolation diminishes; real-time observations will clarify by late afternoon.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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