Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Toronto's April 4 high temperature, with implied probabilities clustered around 8–11°C due to Environment and Climate Change Canada's (ECCC) latest forecast calling for cloudy conditions and 40–60% chance of showers, projecting daytime highs near 9–12°C depending on cloud cover and shower timing. Recent model ensembles from GFS and ECMWF show a weak upper-level ridge bringing mild southerly flow, but divergent runs highlight risks of persistent low clouds or afternoon precipitation capping temperatures below 10°C, while brief clearing could push toward 11°C. Spring frontal boundaries amplify this variability, as seen in March's alternating cold snaps and warm spells; watch ECCC's morning update for refined hourly guidance ahead of observations at Pearson International Airport, the market's resolution site.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Toronto on April 4?
Highest temperature in Toronto on April 4?
8°C 20%
11°C or higher 20%
10°C 19%
9°C 18%
$37,809 Vol.
$37,809 Vol.
4 avr. 2026
1°C or below
<1%
2°C
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
1%
5°C
1%
6°C
5%
7°C
14%
8°C
20%
9°C
18%
10°C
19%
11°C or higher
20%
8°C 20%
11°C or higher 20%
10°C 19%
9°C 18%
$37,809 Vol.
$37,809 Vol.
4 avr. 2026
1°C or below
$5,264 Vol.
<1%
2°C
$2,990 Vol.
<1%
3°C
$2,306 Vol.
<1%
4°C
$2,965 Vol.
1%
5°C
$3,037 Vol.
1%
6°C
$2,536 Vol.
5%
7°C
$3,369 Vol.
14%
8°C
$3,829 Vol.
20%
9°C
$2,945 Vol.
18%
10°C
$3,112 Vol.
19%
11°C or higher
$5,510 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Toronto's April 4 high temperature, with implied probabilities clustered around 8–11°C due to Environment and Climate Change Canada's (ECCC) latest forecast calling for cloudy conditions and 40–60% chance of showers, projecting daytime highs near 9–12°C depending on cloud cover and shower timing. Recent model ensembles from GFS and ECMWF show a weak upper-level ridge bringing mild southerly flow, but divergent runs highlight risks of persistent low clouds or afternoon precipitation capping temperatures below 10°C, while brief clearing could push toward 11°C. Spring frontal boundaries amplify this variability, as seen in March's alternating cold snaps and warm spells; watch ECCC's morning update for refined hourly guidance ahead of observations at Pearson International Airport, the market's resolution site.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$37,809Date de fin
4 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 5:26 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Toronto's April 4 high temperature, with implied probabilities clustered around 8–11°C due to Environment and Climate Change Canada's (ECCC) latest forecast calling for cloudy conditions and 40–60% chance of showers, projecting daytime highs near 9–12°C depending on cloud cover and shower timing. Recent model ensembles from GFS and ECMWF show a weak upper-level ridge bringing mild southerly flow, but divergent runs highlight risks of persistent low clouds or afternoon precipitation capping temperatures below 10°C, while brief clearing could push toward 11°C. Spring frontal boundaries amplify this variability, as seen in March's alternating cold snaps and warm spells; watch ECCC's morning update for refined hourly guidance ahead of observations at Pearson International Airport, the market's resolution site.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$37,809Date de fin
4 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 5:26 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Toronto's April 4 high temperature, with implied probabilities clustered around 8–11°C due to Environment and Climate Change Canada's (ECCC) latest forecast calling for cloudy conditions and 40–60% chance of showers, projecting daytime highs near 9–12°C depending on cloud cover and shower timing. Recent model ensembles from GFS and ECMWF show a weak upper-level ridge bringing mild southerly flow, but divergent runs highlight risks of persistent low clouds or afternoon precipitation capping temperatures below 10°C, while brief clearing could push toward 11°C. Spring frontal boundaries amplify this variability, as seen in March's alternating cold snaps and warm spells; watch ECCC's morning update for refined hourly guidance ahead of observations at Pearson International Airport, the market's resolution site.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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