Incumbent Republican Jim Risch secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with 67 percent of the vote against limited opposition. The Democratic nominee subsequently withdrew, leaving independent Todd Achilles as the primary challenger in the solidly Republican state. Recent polling averages show Risch ahead by double digits in most surveys, consistent with Idaho's longstanding partisan patterns and Risch's established record. Traders have priced in these structural advantages, with the Republican outcome reflecting the state's electoral history rather than any single recent event. A realistic shift would require a major late development such as a health issue for the 83-year-old incumbent or an unforeseen scandal capable of altering turnout dynamics before November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$29,911 Vol.
$29,911 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Républicain
94%
Démocrate
5%
$29,911 Vol.
$29,911 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Républicain
$15,849 Vol.
94%
Démocrate
$14,062 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Jim Risch secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with 67 percent of the vote against limited opposition. The Democratic nominee subsequently withdrew, leaving independent Todd Achilles as the primary challenger in the solidly Republican state. Recent polling averages show Risch ahead by double digits in most surveys, consistent with Idaho's longstanding partisan patterns and Risch's established record. Traders have priced in these structural advantages, with the Republican outcome reflecting the state's electoral history rather than any single recent event. A realistic shift would require a major late development such as a health issue for the 83-year-old incumbent or an unforeseen scandal capable of altering turnout dynamics before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$29,911Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Jim Risch secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with 67 percent of the vote against limited opposition. The Democratic nominee subsequently withdrew, leaving independent Todd Achilles as the primary challenger in the solidly Republican state. Recent polling averages show Risch ahead by double digits in most surveys, consistent with Idaho's longstanding partisan patterns and Risch's established record. Traders have priced in these structural advantages, with the Republican outcome reflecting the state's electoral history rather than any single recent event. A realistic shift would require a major late development such as a health issue for the 83-year-old incumbent or an unforeseen scandal capable of altering turnout dynamics before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$29,911Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jim Risch secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with 67 percent of the vote against limited opposition. The Democratic nominee subsequently withdrew, leaving independent Todd Achilles as the primary challenger in the solidly Republican state. Recent polling averages show Risch ahead by double digits in most surveys, consistent with Idaho's longstanding partisan patterns and Risch's established record. Traders have priced in these structural advantages, with the Republican outcome reflecting the state's electoral history rather than any single recent event. A realistic shift would require a major late development such as a health issue for the 83-year-old incumbent or an unforeseen scandal capable of altering turnout dynamics before November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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