Large U.S. banks’ strong capital positions underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability against a major bailout before 2027. The Federal Reserve’s June 2026 stress test showed all 32 participating institutions maintaining common equity Tier 1 ratios above regulatory minimums after absorbing $708 billion in projected losses, with the aggregate ratio declining just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2%—well above the 4.5% floor plus buffers. High starting capital levels near historical peaks, improved net interest income in the scenario, and low numbers of problem banks reported by the FDIC in the second quarter of 2026 reinforce trader consensus. While post-Dodd-Frank reforms and ongoing liquidity requirements reduce systemic risk, an unexpectedly severe downturn exceeding stress-test assumptions or a concentrated credit event could still pressure resolution needs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUn renflouement majeur des banques américaines avant 2027 ?
Un renflouement majeur des banques américaines avant 2027 ?
Oui
7% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
7% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.Large U.S. banks’ strong capital positions underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability against a major bailout before 2027. The Federal Reserve’s June 2026 stress test showed all 32 participating institutions maintaining common equity Tier 1 ratios above regulatory minimums after absorbing $708 billion in projected losses, with the aggregate ratio declining just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2%—well above the 4.5% floor plus buffers. High starting capital levels near historical peaks, improved net interest income in the scenario, and low numbers of problem banks reported by the FDIC in the second quarter of 2026 reinforce trader consensus. While post-Dodd-Frank reforms and ongoing liquidity requirements reduce systemic risk, an unexpectedly severe downturn exceeding stress-test assumptions or a concentrated credit event could still pressure resolution needs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
Marché ouvert : Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ET
Volume
$4,183Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.Large U.S. banks’ strong capital positions underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability against a major bailout before 2027. The Federal Reserve’s June 2026 stress test showed all 32 participating institutions maintaining common equity Tier 1 ratios above regulatory minimums after absorbing $708 billion in projected losses, with the aggregate ratio declining just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2%—well above the 4.5% floor plus buffers. High starting capital levels near historical peaks, improved net interest income in the scenario, and low numbers of problem banks reported by the FDIC in the second quarter of 2026 reinforce trader consensus. While post-Dodd-Frank reforms and ongoing liquidity requirements reduce systemic risk, an unexpectedly severe downturn exceeding stress-test assumptions or a concentrated credit event could still pressure resolution needs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
Volume
$4,183Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Large U.S. banks’ strong capital positions underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability against a major bailout before 2027. The Federal Reserve’s June 2026 stress test showed all 32 participating institutions maintaining common equity Tier 1 ratios above regulatory minimums after absorbing $708 billion in projected losses, with the aggregate ratio declining just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2%—well above the 4.5% floor plus buffers. High starting capital levels near historical peaks, improved net interest income in the scenario, and low numbers of problem banks reported by the FDIC in the second quarter of 2026 reinforce trader consensus. While post-Dodd-Frank reforms and ongoing liquidity requirements reduce systemic risk, an unexpectedly severe downturn exceeding stress-test assumptions or a concentrated credit event could still pressure resolution needs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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