Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.6% implied probability on fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, reflecting persistent Red Sea security disruptions from Houthi attacks that have forced major carriers like Maersk and CMA CGM to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. Alphaliner data confirms January 2026's record-low 150 transits—down over 80% from pre-crisis norms—amid renewed threats in February and March, with monthly container volumes hovering around 200 despite tentative return experiments. This skin-in-the-game sentiment underscores structural avoidance of the route, with total Q1 likely under 600 based on Suez Canal Authority trends. Tail risks include an abrupt ceasefire spurring a late-quarter surge or data revisions, though barriers to 1,000+ remain formidable absent geopolitical resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?
1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?
$57,044 वॉल्यूम
$57,044 वॉल्यूम
31 मार्च, 2026
$57,044 वॉल्यूम
$57,044 वॉल्यूम
31 मार्च, 2026
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.6% implied probability on fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, reflecting persistent Red Sea security disruptions from Houthi attacks that have forced major carriers like Maersk and CMA CGM to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. Alphaliner data confirms January 2026's record-low 150 transits—down over 80% from pre-crisis norms—amid renewed threats in February and March, with monthly container volumes hovering around 200 despite tentative return experiments. This skin-in-the-game sentiment underscores structural avoidance of the route, with total Q1 likely under 600 based on Suez Canal Authority trends. Tail risks include an abrupt ceasefire spurring a late-quarter surge or data revisions, though barriers to 1,000+ remain formidable absent geopolitical resolution.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$57,044समाप्ति तिथि
31 मार्च, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.6% implied probability on fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, reflecting persistent Red Sea security disruptions from Houthi attacks that have forced major carriers like Maersk and CMA CGM to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. Alphaliner data confirms January 2026's record-low 150 transits—down over 80% from pre-crisis norms—amid renewed threats in February and March, with monthly container volumes hovering around 200 despite tentative return experiments. This skin-in-the-game sentiment underscores structural avoidance of the route, with total Q1 likely under 600 based on Suez Canal Authority trends. Tail risks include an abrupt ceasefire spurring a late-quarter surge or data revisions, though barriers to 1,000+ remain formidable absent geopolitical resolution.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
वॉल्यूम
$57,044समाप्ति तिथि
31 मार्च, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.6% implied probability on fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, reflecting persistent Red Sea security disruptions from Houthi attacks that have forced major carriers like Maersk and CMA CGM to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. Alphaliner data confirms January 2026's record-low 150 transits—down over 80% from pre-crisis norms—amid renewed threats in February and March, with monthly container volumes hovering around 200 despite tentative return experiments. This skin-in-the-game sentiment underscores structural avoidance of the route, with total Q1 likely under 600 based on Suez Canal Authority trends. Tail risks include an abrupt ceasefire spurring a late-quarter surge or data revisions, though barriers to 1,000+ remain formidable absent geopolitical resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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