Polymarket traders price an 85.5% implied probability of a Bank of Russia key rate decrease in June, reflecting the central bank's seven consecutive 50 basis point cuts since June 2025—most recently to 15% on March 20, 2026—amid moderating inflation and Q1 economic slowdown. March 2026 headline CPI held at 5.9%, edging above the 5.8% consensus forecast, while seasonally adjusted annualized price growth accelerated early in the year but remains on a disinflationary trajectory toward the 4.5-5.5% 2026 band. Elevated household inflation expectations at 13.4% pose minor risks to no-change (10.5%) or hike (6.3%) outcomes, but trader consensus favors continued easing, with the pending April meeting as the next pivotal catalyst.