Elevated inflation pressures from energy and supply shocks, alongside a hawkish tilt under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, anchor the near-even 44.5% market-implied odds for no change versus a 25 basis point hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Recent labor market data show unemployment holding near 4.1-4.3% with modest job gains, while core PCE and CPI readings remain above the 2% target amid Middle East-related volatility. The July FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% with three dissents favoring an immediate hike, and the removal of forward guidance has shifted focus to incoming data and the September 16 meeting as key swing factors. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether inflation will moderate enough for a hold or require tightening to align with updated SEP projections showing potential rate increases by year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाकोई बदलाव नहीं 45%
25 bps increase 45%
25 bps decrease 9.0%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$474,294 वॉल्यूम
$474,294 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
9%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
45%
25 bps increase
45%
50+ bps increase
2%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 45%
25 bps increase 45%
25 bps decrease 9.0%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$474,294 वॉल्यूम
$474,294 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$76,692 वॉल्यूम
2%
25 bps decrease
$102,184 वॉल्यूम
9%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
$72,780 वॉल्यूम
45%
25 bps increase
$136,298 वॉल्यूम
45%
50+ bps increase
$86,340 वॉल्यूम
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation pressures from energy and supply shocks, alongside a hawkish tilt under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, anchor the near-even 44.5% market-implied odds for no change versus a 25 basis point hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Recent labor market data show unemployment holding near 4.1-4.3% with modest job gains, while core PCE and CPI readings remain above the 2% target amid Middle East-related volatility. The July FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% with three dissents favoring an immediate hike, and the removal of forward guidance has shifted focus to incoming data and the September 16 meeting as key swing factors. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether inflation will moderate enough for a hold or require tightening to align with updated SEP projections showing potential rate increases by year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$474,294समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation pressures from energy and supply shocks, alongside a hawkish tilt under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, anchor the near-even 44.5% market-implied odds for no change versus a 25 basis point hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Recent labor market data show unemployment holding near 4.1-4.3% with modest job gains, while core PCE and CPI readings remain above the 2% target amid Middle East-related volatility. The July FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% with three dissents favoring an immediate hike, and the removal of forward guidance has shifted focus to incoming data and the September 16 meeting as key swing factors. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether inflation will moderate enough for a hold or require tightening to align with updated SEP projections showing potential rate increases by year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$474,294समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation pressures from energy and supply shocks, alongside a hawkish tilt under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, anchor the near-even 44.5% market-implied odds for no change versus a 25 basis point hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Recent labor market data show unemployment holding near 4.1-4.3% with modest job gains, while core PCE and CPI readings remain above the 2% target amid Middle East-related volatility. The July FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% with three dissents favoring an immediate hike, and the removal of forward guidance has shifted focus to incoming data and the September 16 meeting as key swing factors. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether inflation will moderate enough for a hold or require tightening to align with updated SEP projections showing potential rate increases by year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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