Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89% implied probability for no major volcanic eruption (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥6) in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—historically occurring roughly once every 20–50 years, with the last confirmed VEI 6 at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the absence of precursors in current global monitoring. As of mid-April 2026, the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide this year, all low VEI (≤4) with routine USGS alert levels (mostly NORMAL/GREEN or ADVISORY/YELLOW), including ongoing effusive activity at Kīlauea (ORANGE/WATCH) but no signs of explosive caldera-forming buildup at any site. No authoritative forecasts from USGS or other agencies indicate elevated risk for VEI ≥6, though inherent volcanic unpredictability persists; key updates from ongoing seismic, gas, and deformation monitoring could shift sentiment.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाMajor volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
$51,018 वॉल्यूम
$51,018 वॉल्यूम
31 मार्च, 2027
$51,018 वॉल्यूम
$51,018 वॉल्यूम
31 मार्च, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89% implied probability for no major volcanic eruption (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥6) in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—historically occurring roughly once every 20–50 years, with the last confirmed VEI 6 at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the absence of precursors in current global monitoring. As of mid-April 2026, the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide this year, all low VEI (≤4) with routine USGS alert levels (mostly NORMAL/GREEN or ADVISORY/YELLOW), including ongoing effusive activity at Kīlauea (ORANGE/WATCH) but no signs of explosive caldera-forming buildup at any site. No authoritative forecasts from USGS or other agencies indicate elevated risk for VEI ≥6, though inherent volcanic unpredictability persists; key updates from ongoing seismic, gas, and deformation monitoring could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$51,018समाप्ति तिथि
31 मार्च, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89% implied probability for no major volcanic eruption (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥6) in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—historically occurring roughly once every 20–50 years, with the last confirmed VEI 6 at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the absence of precursors in current global monitoring. As of mid-April 2026, the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide this year, all low VEI (≤4) with routine USGS alert levels (mostly NORMAL/GREEN or ADVISORY/YELLOW), including ongoing effusive activity at Kīlauea (ORANGE/WATCH) but no signs of explosive caldera-forming buildup at any site. No authoritative forecasts from USGS or other agencies indicate elevated risk for VEI ≥6, though inherent volcanic unpredictability persists; key updates from ongoing seismic, gas, and deformation monitoring could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$51,018समाप्ति तिथि
31 मार्च, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89% implied probability for no major volcanic eruption (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥6) in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—historically occurring roughly once every 20–50 years, with the last confirmed VEI 6 at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the absence of precursors in current global monitoring. As of mid-April 2026, the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide this year, all low VEI (≤4) with routine USGS alert levels (mostly NORMAL/GREEN or ADVISORY/YELLOW), including ongoing effusive activity at Kīlauea (ORANGE/WATCH) but no signs of explosive caldera-forming buildup at any site. No authoritative forecasts from USGS or other agencies indicate elevated risk for VEI ≥6, though inherent volcanic unpredictability persists; key updates from ongoing seismic, gas, and deformation monitoring could shift sentiment.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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