Polymarket traders' 91% implied probability for positive U.S. GDP growth in 2026 reflects robust Q1 nowcasts—Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 1.3% (April 9) and New York Fed at 2.3% (April 10)—bolstered by March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, exceeding subdued expectations amid a 4.3% unemployment rate. Consensus economist forecasts cluster around 2.0–2.4% annual expansion per IMF and Vanguard updates, signaling a soft landing despite Q4 2025's downward revision to 0.5% growth. This skin-in-the-game sentiment discounts full-year contraction amid resilient consumer spending and moderating inflation. Risks include a Q1 GDP advance estimate below zero on April 30 or renewed oil price shocks from geopolitics eroding momentum.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में नकारात्मक जीडीपी वृद्धि?
2026 में नकारात्मक जीडीपी वृद्धि?
हाँ
$19,657 वॉल्यूम
$19,657 वॉल्यूम
29 जन, 2027
हाँ
$19,657 वॉल्यूम
$19,657 वॉल्यूम
29 जन, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Polymarket traders' 91% implied probability for positive U.S. GDP growth in 2026 reflects robust Q1 nowcasts—Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 1.3% (April 9) and New York Fed at 2.3% (April 10)—bolstered by March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, exceeding subdued expectations amid a 4.3% unemployment rate. Consensus economist forecasts cluster around 2.0–2.4% annual expansion per IMF and Vanguard updates, signaling a soft landing despite Q4 2025's downward revision to 0.5% growth. This skin-in-the-game sentiment discounts full-year contraction amid resilient consumer spending and moderating inflation. Risks include a Q1 GDP advance estimate below zero on April 30 or renewed oil price shocks from geopolitics eroding momentum.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$19,657समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Polymarket traders' 91% implied probability for positive U.S. GDP growth in 2026 reflects robust Q1 nowcasts—Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 1.3% (April 9) and New York Fed at 2.3% (April 10)—bolstered by March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, exceeding subdued expectations amid a 4.3% unemployment rate. Consensus economist forecasts cluster around 2.0–2.4% annual expansion per IMF and Vanguard updates, signaling a soft landing despite Q4 2025's downward revision to 0.5% growth. This skin-in-the-game sentiment discounts full-year contraction amid resilient consumer spending and moderating inflation. Risks include a Q1 GDP advance estimate below zero on April 30 or renewed oil price shocks from geopolitics eroding momentum.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$19,657समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders' 91% implied probability for positive U.S. GDP growth in 2026 reflects robust Q1 nowcasts—Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 1.3% (April 9) and New York Fed at 2.3% (April 10)—bolstered by March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, exceeding subdued expectations amid a 4.3% unemployment rate. Consensus economist forecasts cluster around 2.0–2.4% annual expansion per IMF and Vanguard updates, signaling a soft landing despite Q4 2025's downward revision to 0.5% growth. This skin-in-the-game sentiment discounts full-year contraction amid resilient consumer spending and moderating inflation. Risks include a Q1 GDP advance estimate below zero on April 30 or renewed oil price shocks from geopolitics eroding momentum.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न