Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur faces Republican nominee Derek Merrin in Ohio’s 9th congressional district on November 3, 2026. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 72.5% implied probability of holding the seat, reflecting Kaptur’s long tenure since 1983, strong name recognition, and proven ability to win the district narrowly in 2024 despite unfavorable national conditions. The seat was redrawn after the prior cycle to favor Republicans, with Donald Trump carrying the new lines by double digits, yet recent polling remains mixed and the race is rated a toss-up or slight lean by most forecasters. Merrin’s May primary victory consolidated GOP support but has not yet shifted trader consensus, as incumbency advantages and fundraising patterns continue to anchor expectations for a Democratic hold absent major late-cycle shifts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाOH -09 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
OH -09 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
$28,326 वॉल्यूम
$28,326 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
72%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
27%
$28,326 वॉल्यूम
$28,326 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$3,875 वॉल्यूम
72%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$24,451 वॉल्यूम
27%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur faces Republican nominee Derek Merrin in Ohio’s 9th congressional district on November 3, 2026. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 72.5% implied probability of holding the seat, reflecting Kaptur’s long tenure since 1983, strong name recognition, and proven ability to win the district narrowly in 2024 despite unfavorable national conditions. The seat was redrawn after the prior cycle to favor Republicans, with Donald Trump carrying the new lines by double digits, yet recent polling remains mixed and the race is rated a toss-up or slight lean by most forecasters. Merrin’s May primary victory consolidated GOP support but has not yet shifted trader consensus, as incumbency advantages and fundraising patterns continue to anchor expectations for a Democratic hold absent major late-cycle shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$28,326समाप्ति तिथि
4 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur faces Republican nominee Derek Merrin in Ohio’s 9th congressional district on November 3, 2026. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 72.5% implied probability of holding the seat, reflecting Kaptur’s long tenure since 1983, strong name recognition, and proven ability to win the district narrowly in 2024 despite unfavorable national conditions. The seat was redrawn after the prior cycle to favor Republicans, with Donald Trump carrying the new lines by double digits, yet recent polling remains mixed and the race is rated a toss-up or slight lean by most forecasters. Merrin’s May primary victory consolidated GOP support but has not yet shifted trader consensus, as incumbency advantages and fundraising patterns continue to anchor expectations for a Democratic hold absent major late-cycle shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$28,326समाप्ति तिथि
4 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur faces Republican nominee Derek Merrin in Ohio’s 9th congressional district on November 3, 2026. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 72.5% implied probability of holding the seat, reflecting Kaptur’s long tenure since 1983, strong name recognition, and proven ability to win the district narrowly in 2024 despite unfavorable national conditions. The seat was redrawn after the prior cycle to favor Republicans, with Donald Trump carrying the new lines by double digits, yet recent polling remains mixed and the race is rated a toss-up or slight lean by most forecasters. Merrin’s May primary victory consolidated GOP support but has not yet shifted trader consensus, as incumbency advantages and fundraising patterns continue to anchor expectations for a Democratic hold absent major late-cycle shifts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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