Amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions marked by a U.S. naval blockade and ongoing airstrikes since early 2026, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 67.5% implied probability against a full-scale ground invasion before 2027, driven by persistent diplomatic off-ramps. Recent failures in Islamabad talks prompted Pakistan-mediated efforts for a second round, with a delegation meeting Iranian officials on April 16 and President Trump signaling the conflict could end "very soon." Senate Republicans rejected war powers limits, enabling executive flexibility, yet massive deployments—including 5,000 Marines and the 82nd Airborne—remain short of invasion thresholds amid economic pressures and de-escalation signals. Upcoming negotiations could further tip odds toward avoidance.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या अमेरिका 2027 से पहले ईरान पर हमला करेगा?
क्या अमेरिका 2027 से पहले ईरान पर हमला करेगा?
हाँ
$10,595,578 वॉल्यूम
$10,595,578 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$10,595,578 वॉल्यूम
$10,595,578 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions marked by a U.S. naval blockade and ongoing airstrikes since early 2026, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 67.5% implied probability against a full-scale ground invasion before 2027, driven by persistent diplomatic off-ramps. Recent failures in Islamabad talks prompted Pakistan-mediated efforts for a second round, with a delegation meeting Iranian officials on April 16 and President Trump signaling the conflict could end "very soon." Senate Republicans rejected war powers limits, enabling executive flexibility, yet massive deployments—including 5,000 Marines and the 82nd Airborne—remain short of invasion thresholds amid economic pressures and de-escalation signals. Upcoming negotiations could further tip odds toward avoidance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$10,595,578समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions marked by a U.S. naval blockade and ongoing airstrikes since early 2026, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 67.5% implied probability against a full-scale ground invasion before 2027, driven by persistent diplomatic off-ramps. Recent failures in Islamabad talks prompted Pakistan-mediated efforts for a second round, with a delegation meeting Iranian officials on April 16 and President Trump signaling the conflict could end "very soon." Senate Republicans rejected war powers limits, enabling executive flexibility, yet massive deployments—including 5,000 Marines and the 82nd Airborne—remain short of invasion thresholds amid economic pressures and de-escalation signals. Upcoming negotiations could further tip odds toward avoidance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
वॉल्यूम
$10,595,645समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions marked by a U.S. naval blockade and ongoing airstrikes since early 2026, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 67.5% implied probability against a full-scale ground invasion before 2027, driven by persistent diplomatic off-ramps. Recent failures in Islamabad talks prompted Pakistan-mediated efforts for a second round, with a delegation meeting Iranian officials on April 16 and President Trump signaling the conflict could end "very soon." Senate Republicans rejected war powers limits, enabling executive flexibility, yet massive deployments—including 5,000 Marines and the 82nd Airborne—remain short of invasion thresholds amid economic pressures and de-escalation signals. Upcoming negotiations could further tip odds toward avoidance.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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