**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory position 33–35 °C as the most likely range for the daily maximum on August 7.** The 9-day forecast issued on August 6 calls for mainly fine conditions with light winds, a temperature range of 28–34 °C, and very hot daytime conditions over the coastal Guangdong region. Multi-model consensus products and private forecasts (AccuWeather, TimeandDate) converge on afternoon highs of 33–34 °C (91–93 °F), consistent with the market’s leading 34 °C outcome at 44.5 % implied probability. **Key scientific drivers include weak steering flow under the subtropical ridge, strong daytime insolation, and urban heat-island effects that routinely add 1–2 °C to official readings.** Historical climatology for early August shows average maxima near 31–32 °C, so current guidance reflects the “normal to above-normal” seasonal outlook issued by HKO for August–October 2026. Isolated showers or thunderstorms could cap the peak slightly below 34 °C, while clearer skies or delayed convection would favor 35 °C; the tight clustering of market odds (33–35 °C accounting for ~89 % of probability) reflects this narrow forecast envelope and the low likelihood of extremes given the benign synoptic pattern. Updated model runs and the next HKO bulletin tomorrow morning will be the primary catalysts for any late shifts in trader positioning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 7?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 7?
34°C 44%
33°C 27%
35°C 20%
36°C 7%
$30,145 Vol.
$30,145 Vol.
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
5%
33°C
27%
34°C
44%
35°C
20%
36°C
7%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 44%
33°C 27%
35°C 20%
36°C 7%
$30,145 Vol.
$30,145 Vol.
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
5%
33°C
27%
34°C
44%
35°C
20%
36°C
7%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory position 33–35 °C as the most likely range for the daily maximum on August 7.** The 9-day forecast issued on August 6 calls for mainly fine conditions with light winds, a temperature range of 28–34 °C, and very hot daytime conditions over the coastal Guangdong region. Multi-model consensus products and private forecasts (AccuWeather, TimeandDate) converge on afternoon highs of 33–34 °C (91–93 °F), consistent with the market’s leading 34 °C outcome at 44.5 % implied probability. **Key scientific drivers include weak steering flow under the subtropical ridge, strong daytime insolation, and urban heat-island effects that routinely add 1–2 °C to official readings.** Historical climatology for early August shows average maxima near 31–32 °C, so current guidance reflects the “normal to above-normal” seasonal outlook issued by HKO for August–October 2026. Isolated showers or thunderstorms could cap the peak slightly below 34 °C, while clearer skies or delayed convection would favor 35 °C; the tight clustering of market odds (33–35 °C accounting for ~89 % of probability) reflects this narrow forecast envelope and the low likelihood of extremes given the benign synoptic pattern. Updated model runs and the next HKO bulletin tomorrow morning will be the primary catalysts for any late shifts in trader positioning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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