**Forecast consensus from recent model runs and AEMET guidance points to a daytime maximum near 33–34°C in Madrid on September 14 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow that favors strong solar heating.** These conditions align with the market’s heavy weighting on 34°C (52.5%) and 35°C (31.5%), as ensemble guidance shows limited spread and minimal cloud or precipitation risk through the period. Recent AEMET commentary notes a steady temperature rise through Tuesday, consistent with the current warm anomaly relative to mid-September climatology. Traders appear to be pricing the narrow window between model solutions while monitoring the next ECMWF and AEMET updates for any late adjustments in boundary-layer mixing or wind direction that could shift the exact peak by 1°C.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Madrid on September 14?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 14?
34°C 55%
35°C 30%
33°C 15%
36°C 4.0%
BARU
BARU
Sep 14, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C
2%
33°C
15%
34°C
55%
35°C
30%
36°C
4%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 55%
35°C 30%
33°C 15%
36°C 4.0%
BARU
BARU
Sep 14, 2026
29°C or below
$25 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$100 Vol.
1%
31°C
$0 Vol.
1%
32°C
$5 Vol.
2%
33°C
$53 Vol.
15%
34°C
$749 Vol.
55%
35°C
$753 Vol.
30%
36°C
$30 Vol.
4%
37°C
$5 Vol.
1%
38°C
$30 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$45 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from recent model runs and AEMET guidance points to a daytime maximum near 33–34°C in Madrid on September 14 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow that favors strong solar heating.**
These conditions align with the market’s heavy weighting on 34°C (52.5%) and 35°C (31.5%), as ensemble guidance shows limited spread and minimal cloud or precipitation risk through the period. Recent AEMET commentary notes a steady temperature rise through Tuesday, consistent with the current warm anomaly relative to mid-September climatology. Traders appear to be pricing the narrow window between model solutions while monitoring the next ECMWF and AEMET updates for any late adjustments in boundary-layer mixing or wind direction that could shift the exact peak by 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,794Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from recent model runs and AEMET guidance points to a daytime maximum near 33–34°C in Madrid on September 14 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow that favors strong solar heating.**
These conditions align with the market’s heavy weighting on 34°C (52.5%) and 35°C (31.5%), as ensemble guidance shows limited spread and minimal cloud or precipitation risk through the period. Recent AEMET commentary notes a steady temperature rise through Tuesday, consistent with the current warm anomaly relative to mid-September climatology. Traders appear to be pricing the narrow window between model solutions while monitoring the next ECMWF and AEMET updates for any late adjustments in boundary-layer mixing or wind direction that could shift the exact peak by 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,794Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from recent model runs and AEMET guidance points to a daytime maximum near 33–34°C in Madrid on September 14 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow that favors strong solar heating.** These conditions align with the market’s heavy weighting on 34°C (52.5%) and 35°C (31.5%), as ensemble guidance shows limited spread and minimal cloud or precipitation risk through the period. Recent AEMET commentary notes a steady temperature rise through Tuesday, consistent with the current warm anomaly relative to mid-September climatology. Traders appear to be pricing the narrow window between model solutions while monitoring the next ECMWF and AEMET updates for any late adjustments in boundary-layer mixing or wind direction that could shift the exact peak by 1°C.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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