Jerome Powell faces no active criminal investigations, indictments, or regulatory actions that could plausibly result in incarceration before 2027, underpinning the 98.1% market-implied probability on “No.” As Fed Chair through mid-2026, Powell operates within a framework of monetary policy decisions tied to inflation data, labor market reports, and FOMC communications, none of which have triggered legal exposure. Historical precedent shows central bankers rarely face personal criminal liability for policy outcomes, and recent economic releases through mid-2026 have produced no basis for such claims. Tail-risk scenarios remain remote, including hypothetical future political shifts or unsubstantiated allegations, but these lack credible pathways under current legal and institutional norms.
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Jerome Powell faces no active criminal investigations, indictments, or regulatory actions that could plausibly result in incarceration before 2027, underpinning the 98.1% market-implied probability on “No.” As Fed Chair through mid-2026, Powell operates within a framework of monetary policy decisions tied to inflation data, labor market reports, and FOMC communications, none of which have triggered legal exposure. Historical precedent shows central bankers rarely face personal criminal liability for policy outcomes, and recent economic releases through mid-2026 have produced no basis for such claims. Tail-risk scenarios remain remote, including hypothetical future political shifts or unsubstantiated allegations, but these lack credible pathways under current legal and institutional norms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Volume
$5,146Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Jerome Powell faces no active criminal investigations, indictments, or regulatory actions that could plausibly result in incarceration before 2027, underpinning the 98.1% market-implied probability on “No.” As Fed Chair through mid-2026, Powell operates within a framework of monetary policy decisions tied to inflation data, labor market reports, and FOMC communications, none of which have triggered legal exposure. Historical precedent shows central bankers rarely face personal criminal liability for policy outcomes, and recent economic releases through mid-2026 have produced no basis for such claims. Tail-risk scenarios remain remote, including hypothetical future political shifts or unsubstantiated allegations, but these lack credible pathways under current legal and institutional norms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,146Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Jerome Powell faces no active criminal investigations, indictments, or regulatory actions that could plausibly result in incarceration before 2027, underpinning the 98.1% market-implied probability on “No.” As Fed Chair through mid-2026, Powell operates within a framework of monetary policy decisions tied to inflation data, labor market reports, and FOMC communications, none of which have triggered legal exposure. Historical precedent shows central bankers rarely face personal criminal liability for policy outcomes, and recent economic releases through mid-2026 have produced no basis for such claims. Tail-risk scenarios remain remote, including hypothetical future political shifts or unsubstantiated allegations, but these lack credible pathways under current legal and institutional norms.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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