Strong trader consensus reflected in the 98.2% market-implied probability against Jerome Powell facing imprisonment before 2027 arises from the complete absence of active criminal investigations, indictments, or credible legal proceedings against the Federal Reserve Chair. Institutional safeguards, longstanding precedents for senior monetary policymakers, and the apolitical nature of Fed operations reinforce this positioning amid stable monetary policy implementation. Recent FOMC communications and economic data releases have advanced without legal complications. Tail-risk scenarios that could still influence outcomes include unprecedented post-election political shifts or regulatory actions after the 2026 midterms, though these remain remote from current pricing and would require extraordinary developments to alter probabilities materially.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBARU
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Dec 31, 2026
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Strong trader consensus reflected in the 98.2% market-implied probability against Jerome Powell facing imprisonment before 2027 arises from the complete absence of active criminal investigations, indictments, or credible legal proceedings against the Federal Reserve Chair. Institutional safeguards, longstanding precedents for senior monetary policymakers, and the apolitical nature of Fed operations reinforce this positioning amid stable monetary policy implementation. Recent FOMC communications and economic data releases have advanced without legal complications. Tail-risk scenarios that could still influence outcomes include unprecedented post-election political shifts or regulatory actions after the 2026 midterms, though these remain remote from current pricing and would require extraordinary developments to alter probabilities materially.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Volume
$5,183Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Strong trader consensus reflected in the 98.2% market-implied probability against Jerome Powell facing imprisonment before 2027 arises from the complete absence of active criminal investigations, indictments, or credible legal proceedings against the Federal Reserve Chair. Institutional safeguards, longstanding precedents for senior monetary policymakers, and the apolitical nature of Fed operations reinforce this positioning amid stable monetary policy implementation. Recent FOMC communications and economic data releases have advanced without legal complications. Tail-risk scenarios that could still influence outcomes include unprecedented post-election political shifts or regulatory actions after the 2026 midterms, though these remain remote from current pricing and would require extraordinary developments to alter probabilities materially.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,183Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong trader consensus reflected in the 98.2% market-implied probability against Jerome Powell facing imprisonment before 2027 arises from the complete absence of active criminal investigations, indictments, or credible legal proceedings against the Federal Reserve Chair. Institutional safeguards, longstanding precedents for senior monetary policymakers, and the apolitical nature of Fed operations reinforce this positioning amid stable monetary policy implementation. Recent FOMC communications and economic data releases have advanced without legal complications. Tail-risk scenarios that could still influence outcomes include unprecedented post-election political shifts or regulatory actions after the 2026 midterms, though these remain remote from current pricing and would require extraordinary developments to alter probabilities materially.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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