Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99% implied probability of no change in the Federal Reserve's 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, backed by the central bank's March decision to hold steady and dot plot signaling just one rate cut later in 2026. This positioning reflects resilient labor market data, with March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and unemployment at 4.3%, offsetting hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year driven by war-related energy shocks from tensions with Iran. Recent FOMC minutes highlight some officials' openness to hikes amid elevated inflation risks, but baseline expectations favor policy patience. Realistic challenges include further inflation surges or sharp labor deterioration ahead of the meeting, though current pricing embeds low odds for shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDecisione della Fed ad aprile?
Decisione della Fed ad aprile?
Nessun cambiamento 99.0%
Riduzione di 25 punti base <1%
Aumento di oltre 25 punti base <1%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base <1%
$94,723,715 Vol.
$94,723,715 Vol.
29 apr 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
<1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
<1%
Nessun cambiamento
99%
Aumento di oltre 25 punti base
<1%
Nessun cambiamento 99.0%
Riduzione di 25 punti base <1%
Aumento di oltre 25 punti base <1%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base <1%
$94,723,715 Vol.
$94,723,715 Vol.
29 apr 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
$34,695,669 Vol.
<1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
$19,424,730 Vol.
<1%
Nessun cambiamento
$19,183,739 Vol.
99%
Aumento di oltre 25 punti base
$21,420,698 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99% implied probability of no change in the Federal Reserve's 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, backed by the central bank's March decision to hold steady and dot plot signaling just one rate cut later in 2026. This positioning reflects resilient labor market data, with March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and unemployment at 4.3%, offsetting hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year driven by war-related energy shocks from tensions with Iran. Recent FOMC minutes highlight some officials' openness to hikes amid elevated inflation risks, but baseline expectations favor policy patience. Realistic challenges include further inflation surges or sharp labor deterioration ahead of the meeting, though current pricing embeds low odds for shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$94,723,715Data di fine
29 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99% implied probability of no change in the Federal Reserve's 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, backed by the central bank's March decision to hold steady and dot plot signaling just one rate cut later in 2026. This positioning reflects resilient labor market data, with March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and unemployment at 4.3%, offsetting hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year driven by war-related energy shocks from tensions with Iran. Recent FOMC minutes highlight some officials' openness to hikes amid elevated inflation risks, but baseline expectations favor policy patience. Realistic challenges include further inflation surges or sharp labor deterioration ahead of the meeting, though current pricing embeds low odds for shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$94,723,715Data di fine
29 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99% implied probability of no change in the Federal Reserve's 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, backed by the central bank's March decision to hold steady and dot plot signaling just one rate cut later in 2026. This positioning reflects resilient labor market data, with March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and unemployment at 4.3%, offsetting hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year driven by war-related energy shocks from tensions with Iran. Recent FOMC minutes highlight some officials' openness to hikes amid elevated inflation risks, but baseline expectations favor policy patience. Realistic challenges include further inflation surges or sharp labor deterioration ahead of the meeting, though current pricing embeds low odds for shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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