Elevated inflation pressures, including a 3.5% year-over-year CPI print for June amid Middle East supply shocks, have anchored the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% target range after unanimous holds at the June and July FOMC meetings. A divided July vote with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike has shifted market-implied odds toward tightening at the September 15–16 gathering, supporting the 63% probability on “Other” sequences that incorporate at least one rate increase. Trader consensus reflected in these prices aligns with June dot-plot medians pointing to a higher end-2026 policy rate and contrasts with baseline forecasts from several banks expecting a prolonged pause through year-end. Key near-term catalysts include the next CPI releases and potential signals from the Jackson Hole symposium that could alter the path priced into September futures.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoOther 63%
Pause–Pause–Pause 37%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$662,989 Vol.
$662,989 Vol.
16 set 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
37%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
63%
Other 63%
Pause–Pause–Pause 37%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$662,989 Vol.
$662,989 Vol.
16 set 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$264,086 Vol.
37%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$57,817 Vol.
1%
Other
$285,209 Vol.
63%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation pressures, including a 3.5% year-over-year CPI print for June amid Middle East supply shocks, have anchored the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% target range after unanimous holds at the June and July FOMC meetings. A divided July vote with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike has shifted market-implied odds toward tightening at the September 15–16 gathering, supporting the 63% probability on “Other” sequences that incorporate at least one rate increase. Trader consensus reflected in these prices aligns with June dot-plot medians pointing to a higher end-2026 policy rate and contrasts with baseline forecasts from several banks expecting a prolonged pause through year-end. Key near-term catalysts include the next CPI releases and potential signals from the Jackson Hole symposium that could alter the path priced into September futures.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercato aperto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$662,989Data di fine
16 set 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation pressures, including a 3.5% year-over-year CPI print for June amid Middle East supply shocks, have anchored the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% target range after unanimous holds at the June and July FOMC meetings. A divided July vote with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike has shifted market-implied odds toward tightening at the September 15–16 gathering, supporting the 63% probability on “Other” sequences that incorporate at least one rate increase. Trader consensus reflected in these prices aligns with June dot-plot medians pointing to a higher end-2026 policy rate and contrasts with baseline forecasts from several banks expecting a prolonged pause through year-end. Key near-term catalysts include the next CPI releases and potential signals from the Jackson Hole symposium that could alter the path priced into September futures.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$662,989Data di fine
16 set 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation pressures, including a 3.5% year-over-year CPI print for June amid Middle East supply shocks, have anchored the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% target range after unanimous holds at the June and July FOMC meetings. A divided July vote with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike has shifted market-implied odds toward tightening at the September 15–16 gathering, supporting the 63% probability on “Other” sequences that incorporate at least one rate increase. Trader consensus reflected in these prices aligns with June dot-plot medians pointing to a higher end-2026 policy rate and contrasts with baseline forecasts from several banks expecting a prolonged pause through year-end. Key near-term catalysts include the next CPI releases and potential signals from the Jackson Hole symposium that could alter the path priced into September futures.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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