**Latest ensemble forecasts point to a high temperature in Munich on September 10 around 17–19°C, driven by post-frontal cooling and increased cloud cover after an unusually warm September 8.** A strong high-pressure system delivered clear skies and highs near 30–32°C on the 8th, but a cold front and associated low-pressure system brought widespread rain and a sharp temperature drop on the 9th. Northerly to northeasterly flow on the 10th is expected to limit daytime heating, with models such as GFS and DWD-MOS consensus showing afternoon maxima near 18°C under mostly cloudy conditions and only light showers possible. Historical climatology places the September 10 average high at approximately 20.5°C, so the current setup sits slightly below normal. Market-implied probabilities cluster around 17–20°C outcomes (collectively over 80% when including overlaps) because newer model runs have converged on this cooler range, while the elevated weighting on 23°C or higher reflects residual uncertainty in exact cloud timing and any late-day clearing that could add 1–2°C. Key upcoming data points include the next 00z and 12z model cycles plus official DWD or MeteoSwiss guidance, which could shift probabilities if steering patterns or insolation change.