**Forecast model consensus for Warsaw on September 10 centers on a maximum of 18–20 °C under increasing cloud cover and light westerly winds, producing the balanced 20 % odds across the 17–21 °C range.** Recent runs from European models show afternoon peaks near 19 °C after overnight lows around 15–17 °C, with scattered light rain or drizzle limiting solar heating. A shift from the current warm spell (highs near 26–30 °C on the 8th–9th) to cooler Atlantic air introduces modest spread in predicted maxima, as cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture remain variable. Historical September averages for the city hover near 16–18 °C, so the current setup sits slightly above normal yet below recent peaks. Traders are weighting the tight clustering of ensemble outputs and the absence of strong high-pressure development that could push readings higher. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.