Trader consensus clusters around 7-9 countries at 31%, 24%, and 14% implied probabilities, reflecting confirmed US drone and airstrikes on the soil of at least six nations in early 2026—Yemen against Houthis, Somalia targeting al-Shabaab, Syria and Iraq hitting ISIS and militias, Iran amid the February-launched war, and Venezuela via the January raid with aerial components—per credible reporting. The tight race persists due to debates over exact counts for ongoing operations like Nigeria counterterrorism and recent Ecuador drug camp bombings in March, plus uncertainty on year-end additions from Iran proxy escalations in Lebanon, expanded Latin American narco strikes, or routine Africa/Middle East missions. De-escalation signals in Iran talks or new verifiable strikes could widen separation before December 31 resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoContro quanti paesi diversi gli Stati Uniti condurranno un'azione militare nel 2026?
Contro quanti paesi diversi gli Stati Uniti condurranno un'azione militare nel 2026?
7 31.5%
8 23.5%
9 14.4%
6 10.1%
$969,038 Vol.
$969,038 Vol.
31 dic 2026
6
10%
7
32%
8
24%
9
14%
10
9%
11
4%
12
3%
13
2%
14
1%
15+
2%
7 31.5%
8 23.5%
9 14.4%
6 10.1%
$969,038 Vol.
$969,038 Vol.
31 dic 2026
6
$423,199 Vol.
10%
7
$6,744 Vol.
32%
8
$105,235 Vol.
24%
9
$11,332 Vol.
14%
10
$11,829 Vol.
9%
11
$15,263 Vol.
4%
12
$28,360 Vol.
3%
13
$47,166 Vol.
2%
14
$42,028 Vol.
1%
15+
$119,718 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus clusters around 7-9 countries at 31%, 24%, and 14% implied probabilities, reflecting confirmed US drone and airstrikes on the soil of at least six nations in early 2026—Yemen against Houthis, Somalia targeting al-Shabaab, Syria and Iraq hitting ISIS and militias, Iran amid the February-launched war, and Venezuela via the January raid with aerial components—per credible reporting. The tight race persists due to debates over exact counts for ongoing operations like Nigeria counterterrorism and recent Ecuador drug camp bombings in March, plus uncertainty on year-end additions from Iran proxy escalations in Lebanon, expanded Latin American narco strikes, or routine Africa/Middle East missions. De-escalation signals in Iran talks or new verifiable strikes could widen separation before December 31 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
Volume
$969,038Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus clusters around 7-9 countries at 31%, 24%, and 14% implied probabilities, reflecting confirmed US drone and airstrikes on the soil of at least six nations in early 2026—Yemen against Houthis, Somalia targeting al-Shabaab, Syria and Iraq hitting ISIS and militias, Iran amid the February-launched war, and Venezuela via the January raid with aerial components—per credible reporting. The tight race persists due to debates over exact counts for ongoing operations like Nigeria counterterrorism and recent Ecuador drug camp bombings in March, plus uncertainty on year-end additions from Iran proxy escalations in Lebanon, expanded Latin American narco strikes, or routine Africa/Middle East missions. De-escalation signals in Iran talks or new verifiable strikes could widen separation before December 31 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$969,038Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus clusters around 7-9 countries at 31%, 24%, and 14% implied probabilities, reflecting confirmed US drone and airstrikes on the soil of at least six nations in early 2026—Yemen against Houthis, Somalia targeting al-Shabaab, Syria and Iraq hitting ISIS and militias, Iran amid the February-launched war, and Venezuela via the January raid with aerial components—per credible reporting. The tight race persists due to debates over exact counts for ongoing operations like Nigeria counterterrorism and recent Ecuador drug camp bombings in March, plus uncertainty on year-end additions from Iran proxy escalations in Lebanon, expanded Latin American narco strikes, or routine Africa/Middle East missions. De-escalation signals in Iran talks or new verifiable strikes could widen separation before December 31 resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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