Trader consensus prices 2–3 ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 at 54%, driven by a two-week lull in verified strikes since early April amid the 2026 Iran war's naval stalemate. U.S. and Israeli airstrikes have degraded IRGC naval assets, enforcing a Strait of Hormuz blockade where 279 vessels transited but only around 22–24 faced attacks earlier, with few sunk or severely damaged. Houthis' April 12 boarding attempt near Bab al-Mandeb failed, echoing late March threats but limited action due to coalition intercepts. Ongoing threats to Red Sea routes and U.S. warship deterrence signal modest escalation potential before resolution, keeping higher brackets like 10+ below 4%.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHow many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
2–3 55%
4–5 19%
8–9 8%
6–7 7%
$60,967 Vol.
$60,967 Vol.
30 apr 2026
2–3
55%
4–5
19%
6–7
7%
8–9
8%
10+
4%
2–3 55%
4–5 19%
8–9 8%
6–7 7%
$60,967 Vol.
$60,967 Vol.
30 apr 2026
2–3
$8,552 Vol.
55%
4–5
$14,175 Vol.
19%
6–7
$3,596 Vol.
7%
8–9
$6,654 Vol.
8%
10+
$3,259 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices 2–3 ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 at 54%, driven by a two-week lull in verified strikes since early April amid the 2026 Iran war's naval stalemate. U.S. and Israeli airstrikes have degraded IRGC naval assets, enforcing a Strait of Hormuz blockade where 279 vessels transited but only around 22–24 faced attacks earlier, with few sunk or severely damaged. Houthis' April 12 boarding attempt near Bab al-Mandeb failed, echoing late March threats but limited action due to coalition intercepts. Ongoing threats to Red Sea routes and U.S. warship deterrence signal modest escalation potential before resolution, keeping higher brackets like 10+ below 4%.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
Volume
$60,967Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices 2–3 ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 at 54%, driven by a two-week lull in verified strikes since early April amid the 2026 Iran war's naval stalemate. U.S. and Israeli airstrikes have degraded IRGC naval assets, enforcing a Strait of Hormuz blockade where 279 vessels transited but only around 22–24 faced attacks earlier, with few sunk or severely damaged. Houthis' April 12 boarding attempt near Bab al-Mandeb failed, echoing late March threats but limited action due to coalition intercepts. Ongoing threats to Red Sea routes and U.S. warship deterrence signal modest escalation potential before resolution, keeping higher brackets like 10+ below 4%.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$60,967Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices 2–3 ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 at 54%, driven by a two-week lull in verified strikes since early April amid the 2026 Iran war's naval stalemate. U.S. and Israeli airstrikes have degraded IRGC naval assets, enforcing a Strait of Hormuz blockade where 279 vessels transited but only around 22–24 faced attacks earlier, with few sunk or severely damaged. Houthis' April 12 boarding attempt near Bab al-Mandeb failed, echoing late March threats but limited action due to coalition intercepts. Ongoing threats to Red Sea routes and U.S. warship deterrence signal modest escalation potential before resolution, keeping higher brackets like 10+ below 4%.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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