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Geopolitica·Trump

L'Iran accetta di porre fine all'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 30 aprile?

Market icon
Geopolitica·Trump

L'Iran accetta di porre fine all'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 30 aprile?

apr 30

giu 30

dic 31

apr 30

giu 30

dic 31

Sì

35% probabilità
Polymarket

$1,034,773 Vol.

Sì

35% probabilità
Polymarket

$1,034,773 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent US-Iran negotiations in Pakistan over the April 12-13 weekend stalled on uranium enrichment, with the US demanding a 20-year moratorium and Iran countering with a five-year limit, revealing a core impasse just two weeks before the April 30 deadline. Iranian officials, including Atomic Energy Organization head Mohammad Eslami, have rejected halting enrichment outright, while President Trump expressed diminished confidence in a deal and no further talks are scheduled. IAEA reports highlight Iran's growing enriched uranium stockpile amid limited access, reinforcing trader consensus that Tehran prioritizes its nuclear program as leverage in sanctions relief and regional ceasefire discussions, pricing "No" at 65.5% as a full agreement appears unlikely absent major concessions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.

Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.

An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.

Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,034,773
Data di fine
30 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent US-Iran negotiations in Pakistan over the April 12-13 weekend stalled on uranium enrichment, with the US demanding a 20-year moratorium and Iran countering with a five-year limit, revealing a core impasse just two weeks before the April 30 deadline. Iranian officials, including Atomic Energy Organization head Mohammad Eslami, have rejected halting enrichment outright, while President Trump expressed diminished confidence in a deal and no further talks are scheduled. IAEA reports highlight Iran's growing enriched uranium stockpile amid limited access, reinforcing trader consensus that Tehran prioritizes its nuclear program as leverage in sanctions relief and regional ceasefire discussions, pricing "No" at 65.5% as a full agreement appears unlikely absent major concessions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.

Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.

An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.

Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,035,025
Data di fine
30 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Domande frequenti

"L'Iran accetta di porre fine all'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 30 aprile?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 2 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "L'Iran accetta di terminare l'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 30 aprile?" a 35%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 35¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 35% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "L'Iran accetta di porre fine all'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 30 aprile?" ha generato $1 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Mar 6, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "L'Iran accetta di porre fine all'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 30 aprile?", esplora i 2 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "L'Iran accetta di porre fine all'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 30 aprile?" è "L'Iran accetta di terminare l'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 30 aprile?" a 35%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 35% a quell'esito. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "L'Iran accetta di porre fine all'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 30 aprile?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.