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Mondo·Medio Oriente

Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?

Market icon
Mondo·Medio Oriente

Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 69.0%

Reza Pahlavi 8%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 6.8%

Hassan Rouhani 4.4%

Polymarket

$6,521,299 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 69.0%

Reza Pahlavi 8%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 6.8%

Hassan Rouhani 4.4%

Polymarket

$6,521,299 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$1,526,665 Vol.

69%

Reza Pahlavi

$154,502 Vol.

8%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$170,579 Vol.

7%

Hassan Rouhani

$280,164 Vol.

4%

Nessun Capo di Stato

$369,661 Vol.

2%

Hassan Khomeini

$731,758 Vol.

2%

Alireza Arafi

$780,111 Vol.

1%

Abbas Araghchi

$104,328 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$200,128 Vol.

1%

Mohammad Khatami

$246,443 Vol.

1%

Saeed Jalili

$47,400 Vol.

1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$51,276 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$256,931 Vol.

<1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$244,621 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$275,950 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$177,756 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$54,818 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$76,422 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$150,259 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$23,688 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$34,181 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$28,363 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$21,014 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$52,033 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$36,759 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$68,593 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$48,617 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$31,699 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$15,949 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$25,487 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 68.5% as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026, reflecting his swift appointment by the Assembly of Experts on March 8 following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's killing in early March US-Israeli strikes amid escalating conflict. Despite persistent reports since mid-March of severe facial and leg wounds from subsequent attacks—detailed as recently as April 11 by Reuters—and his absence from public view, state media and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi affirm his control, bolstering continuity expectations backed by IRGC influence. Reza Pahlavi trails at 8% on opposition rhetoric for transitional government amid war strains and protests, while other clerics like Ghalibaf draw minimal support absent factional shifts. Upcoming diplomatic signals or health updates could sway odds.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$6,521,299
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 68.5% as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026, reflecting his swift appointment by the Assembly of Experts on March 8 following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's killing in early March US-Israeli strikes amid escalating conflict. Despite persistent reports since mid-March of severe facial and leg wounds from subsequent attacks—detailed as recently as April 11 by Reuters—and his absence from public view, state media and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi affirm his control, bolstering continuity expectations backed by IRGC influence. Reza Pahlavi trails at 8% on opposition rhetoric for transitional government amid war strains and protests, while other clerics like Ghalibaf draw minimal support absent factional shifts. Upcoming diplomatic signals or health updates could sway odds.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$6,521,299
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Domande frequenti

"Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 32 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Mojtaba Khamenei" a 69%, seguito da "Reza Pahlavi" a 8%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 69¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 69% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?" ha generato $6.5 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Mar 1, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?", esplora i 32 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?" è "Mojtaba Khamenei" a 69%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 69% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Reza Pahlavi" a 8%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.