Skip to main content
Market icon
Mondo·Medio Oriente

Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?

Market icon
Mondo·Medio Oriente

Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 68.3%

Reza Pahlavi 10%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 6.7%

Hassan Rouhani 4.4%

Polymarket

$6,514,722 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 68.3%

Reza Pahlavi 10%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 6.7%

Hassan Rouhani 4.4%

Polymarket

$6,514,722 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$1,523,750 Vol.

68%

Reza Pahlavi

$153,341 Vol.

10%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$168,517 Vol.

7%

Hassan Rouhani

$280,159 Vol.

4%

Nessun Capo di Stato

$369,656 Vol.

3%

Hassan Khomeini

$731,748 Vol.

2%

Abbas Araghchi

$104,322 Vol.

2%

Alireza Arafi

$780,106 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$200,123 Vol.

1%

Mohammad Khatami

$246,438 Vol.

1%

Saeed Jalili

$47,395 Vol.

1%

Maryam Rajavi

$256,925 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$244,586 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$275,945 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$175,968 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$54,813 Vol.

<1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$51,221 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$76,401 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$150,198 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$23,683 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$34,176 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$28,358 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$21,009 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$52,028 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$36,754 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$68,508 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$48,612 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$31,694 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$15,944 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$25,482 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus heavily favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 68% implied probability as Iran's Supreme Leader by year-end, reflecting his formal appointment by the Assembly of Experts on March 8 following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in late February US-Israeli strikes amid escalating regional conflict. Recent reports, including Reuters on April 11, highlight his ongoing recovery from severe facial and leg injuries sustained in those attacks, fueling uncertainty over his effective control and prompting CIA assessments of leadership voids. Reza Pahlavi trails at 9.5% on exiled opposition momentum and regime instability signals, while insiders like Ghalibaf linger low amid war pressures and unverified health rumors, with no major shifts in the past week.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$6,514,722
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus heavily favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 68% implied probability as Iran's Supreme Leader by year-end, reflecting his formal appointment by the Assembly of Experts on March 8 following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in late February US-Israeli strikes amid escalating regional conflict. Recent reports, including Reuters on April 11, highlight his ongoing recovery from severe facial and leg injuries sustained in those attacks, fueling uncertainty over his effective control and prompting CIA assessments of leadership voids. Reza Pahlavi trails at 9.5% on exiled opposition momentum and regime instability signals, while insiders like Ghalibaf linger low amid war pressures and unverified health rumors, with no major shifts in the past week.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$6,514,722
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 32 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Mojtaba Khamenei" a 68%, seguito da "Reza Pahlavi" a 10%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 68¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 68% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?" ha generato $6.5 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Mar 1, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?", esplora i 32 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?" è "Mojtaba Khamenei" a 68%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 68% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Reza Pahlavi" a 10%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.