Trader consensus heavily favors the Iran-Israel/US conflict persisting beyond December 31, 2026, reflecting stalled diplomacy amid escalating military pressures. High-level US-Iran talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 12 after 20 hours, with Iran rejecting terms despite offering a five-year uranium enrichment pause, prompting President Trump to impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports via US Central Command—no breaches reported as of April 14. A fragile two-week ceasefire from April 7 has been undermined by Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon (over 2,000 killed) and Iranian proxy attacks on Gulf states. Upcoming Islamabad negotiations (potentially April 17-19) and sanctions expiration on April 19 offer de-escalation paths, but ongoing airstrikes and Hormuz disruptions signal prolonged stalemate.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl conflitto Iran x Israele/Stati Uniti finisce con...?
Il conflitto Iran x Israele/Stati Uniti finisce con...?
$41,930,855 Vol.
30 giu 2026
7 aprile
88%
15 aprile
87%
30 aprile
89%
15 maggio
92%
30 giugno
96%
31 dicembre
98%
$41,930,855 Vol.
7 aprile
$15,117,924 Vol.
88%
15 aprile
$8,918,995 Vol.
87%
30 aprile
$3,820,619 Vol.
89%
15 maggio
$3,404,178 Vol.
92%
30 giugno
$2,825,332 Vol.
96%
31 dicembre
$2,682,793 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.Trader consensus heavily favors the Iran-Israel/US conflict persisting beyond December 31, 2026, reflecting stalled diplomacy amid escalating military pressures. High-level US-Iran talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 12 after 20 hours, with Iran rejecting terms despite offering a five-year uranium enrichment pause, prompting President Trump to impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports via US Central Command—no breaches reported as of April 14. A fragile two-week ceasefire from April 7 has been undermined by Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon (over 2,000 killed) and Iranian proxy attacks on Gulf states. Upcoming Islamabad negotiations (potentially April 17-19) and sanctions expiration on April 19 offer de-escalation paths, but ongoing airstrikes and Hormuz disruptions signal prolonged stalemate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Mercato aperto: Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
Volume
$41,930,855Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.Trader consensus heavily favors the Iran-Israel/US conflict persisting beyond December 31, 2026, reflecting stalled diplomacy amid escalating military pressures. High-level US-Iran talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 12 after 20 hours, with Iran rejecting terms despite offering a five-year uranium enrichment pause, prompting President Trump to impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports via US Central Command—no breaches reported as of April 14. A fragile two-week ceasefire from April 7 has been undermined by Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon (over 2,000 killed) and Iranian proxy attacks on Gulf states. Upcoming Islamabad negotiations (potentially April 17-19) and sanctions expiration on April 19 offer de-escalation paths, but ongoing airstrikes and Hormuz disruptions signal prolonged stalemate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volume
$41,930,855Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors the Iran-Israel/US conflict persisting beyond December 31, 2026, reflecting stalled diplomacy amid escalating military pressures. High-level US-Iran talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 12 after 20 hours, with Iran rejecting terms despite offering a five-year uranium enrichment pause, prompting President Trump to impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports via US Central Command—no breaches reported as of April 14. A fragile two-week ceasefire from April 7 has been undermined by Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon (over 2,000 killed) and Iranian proxy attacks on Gulf states. Upcoming Islamabad negotiations (potentially April 17-19) and sanctions expiration on April 19 offer de-escalation paths, but ongoing airstrikes and Hormuz disruptions signal prolonged stalemate.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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