A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan and effective since April 8, has held without major airstrikes or missile exchanges between Iran, Israel, and the US, anchoring trader consensus at 97% odds for the conflict persisting beyond near-term dates into December 31. However, Islamabad negotiations collapsed on April 12 without agreement, as the US enforces a naval blockade on Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Iranian warnings of retaliation. Ongoing Hezbollah-Israel border clashes and Pakistan-proposed second-round talks add uncertainty, with the truce nearing expiry around April 22 potentially triggering escalation unless diplomatic breakthroughs occur on nuclear issues or blockade terms.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl conflitto Iran x Israele/Stati Uniti finisce con...?
Il conflitto Iran x Israele/Stati Uniti finisce con...?
$42,017,190 Vol.
15 mag 2026
7 aprile
86%
15 aprile
86%
30 aprile
89%
15 maggio
93%
30 giugno
96%
31 dicembre
97%
$42,017,190 Vol.
7 aprile
$15,155,881 Vol.
86%
15 aprile
$8,944,785 Vol.
86%
30 aprile
$3,827,890 Vol.
89%
15 maggio
$3,407,739 Vol.
93%
30 giugno
$2,832,609 Vol.
96%
31 dicembre
$2,686,007 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan and effective since April 8, has held without major airstrikes or missile exchanges between Iran, Israel, and the US, anchoring trader consensus at 97% odds for the conflict persisting beyond near-term dates into December 31. However, Islamabad negotiations collapsed on April 12 without agreement, as the US enforces a naval blockade on Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Iranian warnings of retaliation. Ongoing Hezbollah-Israel border clashes and Pakistan-proposed second-round talks add uncertainty, with the truce nearing expiry around April 22 potentially triggering escalation unless diplomatic breakthroughs occur on nuclear issues or blockade terms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Mercato aperto: Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
Volume
$42,017,190Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan and effective since April 8, has held without major airstrikes or missile exchanges between Iran, Israel, and the US, anchoring trader consensus at 97% odds for the conflict persisting beyond near-term dates into December 31. However, Islamabad negotiations collapsed on April 12 without agreement, as the US enforces a naval blockade on Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Iranian warnings of retaliation. Ongoing Hezbollah-Israel border clashes and Pakistan-proposed second-round talks add uncertainty, with the truce nearing expiry around April 22 potentially triggering escalation unless diplomatic breakthroughs occur on nuclear issues or blockade terms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volume
$42,017,190Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan and effective since April 8, has held without major airstrikes or missile exchanges between Iran, Israel, and the US, anchoring trader consensus at 97% odds for the conflict persisting beyond near-term dates into December 31. However, Islamabad negotiations collapsed on April 12 without agreement, as the US enforces a naval blockade on Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Iranian warnings of retaliation. Ongoing Hezbollah-Israel border clashes and Pakistan-proposed second-round talks add uncertainty, with the truce nearing expiry around April 22 potentially triggering escalation unless diplomatic breakthroughs occur on nuclear issues or blockade terms.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti