The absence of any active criminal proceedings against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell underpins the market-implied 98% probability he will not face incarceration before 2027. A DOJ investigation launched in January 2026 over congressional testimony regarding the central bank's $2.5 billion headquarters renovation was dropped in April without charges or indictments, reflecting judicial pushback and the high evidentiary bar for prosecuting senior monetary policy officials. Institutional safeguards, including Fed independence norms and separation of powers, further limit realistic pathways to jail time even amid political tensions over interest rate policy. With no scheduled catalysts or ongoing probes through year-end, tail risks remain confined to unprecedented future developments such as new referrals or executive actions that would require overcoming substantial legal and procedural hurdles.