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Geopolitica·Iran

Contro cosa condurrà l'Iran un'azione militare entro il 30 aprile?

Market icon
Geopolitica·Iran

Contro cosa condurrà l'Iran un'azione militare entro il 30 aprile?

apr 30

apr 30

$464,214 Vol.

30 apr 2026
Polymarket

$464,214 Vol.

Polymarket

Raffineria di Ruwais

$39,648 Vol.

25%

Ras Laffan Industrial City

$35,857 Vol.

22%

Ras Tanura

$37,991 Vol.

19%

Giacimento di Khurais

$14,786 Vol.

19%

Campo di Habshan/Complesso di lavorazione

$46,277 Vol.

14%

Raffineria di Al Zour

$30,213 Vol.

13%

Impianto di lavorazione del petrolio di Abqaiq

$38,341 Vol.

11%

Giacimento di Ghawar

$12,229 Vol.

11%

Giacimento di Safaniya

$11,512 Vol.

10%

Giacimento Leviathan

$7,662 Vol.

8%

Burj Khalifa

$8,228 Vol.

3%

Dimona (Centro di Ricerca Nucleare Shimon Peres del Negev)

$78,280 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the 2026 US-Israel-Iran war, sparked by American and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure in mid-March, Tehran has retaliated with missile and drone barrages targeting Gulf energy facilities, including Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil processing plant and UAE refineries. A fragile US-brokered ceasefire took hold on April 7, yet sporadic attacks persisted, with Gulf states intercepting projectiles on April 8 and a drone exploding over northern Israel on April 14. Satellite imagery that day revealed Iran excavating to retrieve trapped missile launchers underground. US naval restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz signal blockade risks, while Pakistan-mediated peace talks loom as potential de-escalators before April 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volume
$464,214
Data di fine
30 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the 2026 US-Israel-Iran war, sparked by American and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure in mid-March, Tehran has retaliated with missile and drone barrages targeting Gulf energy facilities, including Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil processing plant and UAE refineries. A fragile US-brokered ceasefire took hold on April 7, yet sporadic attacks persisted, with Gulf states intercepting projectiles on April 8 and a drone exploding over northern Israel on April 14. Satellite imagery that day revealed Iran excavating to retrieve trapped missile launchers underground. US naval restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz signal blockade risks, while Pakistan-mediated peace talks loom as potential de-escalators before April 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volume
$464,214
Data di fine
30 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

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Domande frequenti

"Contro cosa condurrà l'Iran un'azione militare entro il 30 aprile?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 14 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Raffineria di Mina Al-Ahmadi" a 100%, seguito da "Oleodotto East–West" a 100%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 100¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 100% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Contro cosa condurrà l'Iran un'azione militare entro il 30 aprile?" ha generato $464.2K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Mar 23, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Contro cosa condurrà l'Iran un'azione militare entro il 30 aprile?", esplora i 14 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Contro cosa condurrà l'Iran un'azione militare entro il 30 aprile?" è "Raffineria di Mina Al-Ahmadi" a 100%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 100% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Oleodotto East–West" a 100%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Contro cosa condurrà l'Iran un'azione militare entro il 30 aprile?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.