A fragile ceasefire agreed on April 8 has tenuously held amid the US-Israel-Iran war that began February 28, but escalating tensions from a US naval blockade of Iranian ports—now in its third day as of April 15—have raised fears of Iranian retaliation. Tehran previously launched missile barrages at Israel, including cluster munitions near Haifa, and drone and cruise missile strikes on Gulf states' energy infrastructure in UAE, Kuwait, and others, aiming to disrupt global oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic mediation via Pakistan continues, with Iran proposing safe passage for ships on Oman's side of Hormuz, though talks faltered last weekend; Saudi Arabia urges de-escalation to protect its facilities. Upcoming US-Iran talks could avert resumption of hostilities by April 30, but mutual threats of infrastructure strikes persist.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoContro cosa condurrà l'Iran un'azione militare entro il 30 aprile?
Contro cosa condurrà l'Iran un'azione militare entro il 30 aprile?
$463,297 Vol.
30 apr 2026
Raffineria di Ruwais
24%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
22%
Campo di Habshan/Complesso di lavorazione
22%
Ras Tanura
19%
Giacimento di Khurais
19%
Impianto di lavorazione del petrolio di Abqaiq
15%
Raffineria di Al Zour
13%
Giacimento di Ghawar
11%
Giacimento di Safaniya
10%
Giacimento Leviathan
8%
Burj Khalifa
5%
Dimona (Centro di Ricerca Nucleare Shimon Peres del Negev)
3%
$463,297 Vol.
Raffineria di Ruwais
$39,640 Vol.
24%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$35,822 Vol.
22%
Campo di Habshan/Complesso di lavorazione
$46,276 Vol.
22%
Ras Tanura
$37,991 Vol.
19%
Giacimento di Khurais
$14,786 Vol.
19%
Impianto di lavorazione del petrolio di Abqaiq
$38,125 Vol.
15%
Raffineria di Al Zour
$30,213 Vol.
13%
Giacimento di Ghawar
$12,229 Vol.
11%
Giacimento di Safaniya
$11,485 Vol.
10%
Giacimento Leviathan
$7,662 Vol.
8%
Burj Khalifa
$7,980 Vol.
5%
Dimona (Centro di Ricerca Nucleare Shimon Peres del Negev)
$77,899 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.A fragile ceasefire agreed on April 8 has tenuously held amid the US-Israel-Iran war that began February 28, but escalating tensions from a US naval blockade of Iranian ports—now in its third day as of April 15—have raised fears of Iranian retaliation. Tehran previously launched missile barrages at Israel, including cluster munitions near Haifa, and drone and cruise missile strikes on Gulf states' energy infrastructure in UAE, Kuwait, and others, aiming to disrupt global oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic mediation via Pakistan continues, with Iran proposing safe passage for ships on Oman's side of Hormuz, though talks faltered last weekend; Saudi Arabia urges de-escalation to protect its facilities. Upcoming US-Iran talks could avert resumption of hostilities by April 30, but mutual threats of infrastructure strikes persist.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Mercato aperto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$463,297Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.A fragile ceasefire agreed on April 8 has tenuously held amid the US-Israel-Iran war that began February 28, but escalating tensions from a US naval blockade of Iranian ports—now in its third day as of April 15—have raised fears of Iranian retaliation. Tehran previously launched missile barrages at Israel, including cluster munitions near Haifa, and drone and cruise missile strikes on Gulf states' energy infrastructure in UAE, Kuwait, and others, aiming to disrupt global oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic mediation via Pakistan continues, with Iran proposing safe passage for ships on Oman's side of Hormuz, though talks faltered last weekend; Saudi Arabia urges de-escalation to protect its facilities. Upcoming US-Iran talks could avert resumption of hostilities by April 30, but mutual threats of infrastructure strikes persist.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volume
$463,297Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile ceasefire agreed on April 8 has tenuously held amid the US-Israel-Iran war that began February 28, but escalating tensions from a US naval blockade of Iranian ports—now in its third day as of April 15—have raised fears of Iranian retaliation. Tehran previously launched missile barrages at Israel, including cluster munitions near Haifa, and drone and cruise missile strikes on Gulf states' energy infrastructure in UAE, Kuwait, and others, aiming to disrupt global oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic mediation via Pakistan continues, with Iran proposing safe passage for ships on Oman's side of Hormuz, though talks faltered last weekend; Saudi Arabia urges de-escalation to protect its facilities. Upcoming US-Iran talks could avert resumption of hostilities by April 30, but mutual threats of infrastructure strikes persist.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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