Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads trader consensus at 34.5% implied probability as the next Trump Cabinet departure following Attorney General Pam Bondi's ouster on April 2 and DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's removal in early March, driven by reports of White House discussions targeting her amid ongoing internal investigations into alleged misconduct, including civil rights complaints at the Labor Department and multiple staff exits since March. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick trails at 18% due to earlier February scrutiny over Epstein ties, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sits at 13.5% amid persistent operational controversies. Key differentiators include Chavez-DeRemer's active probes and personal scandals versus others' resolved or dated issues; odds could consolidate on an official resignation announcement, firing, or escalation in her case, with Trump's history of high Cabinet turnover amplifying uncertainty ahead of any further shake-up.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLori Chavez-DeRemer 31%
Howard Lutnick 18%
Pete Hegseth 14%
Tulsi Gabbard 7%
$25,575 Vol.
$25,575 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
34%
Howard Lutnick
18%
Pete Hegseth
14%
Tulsi Gabbard
7%
Scott Turner
5%
Lee Zeldin
4%
Russell T. Vought
4%
Scott Bessent
7%
Brooke Rollins
3%
Sean Duffy
3%
Susie Wiles
3%
Nessuno prima del 2027
2%
Linda McMahon
2%
Kelly Loeffler
2%
Marco Rubio
2%
Mike Waltz
1%
Jamieson Greer
1%
Doug Burgum
1%
John Ratcliffe
1%
J.D. Vance
1%
Chris Wright
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
1%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer 31%
Howard Lutnick 18%
Pete Hegseth 14%
Tulsi Gabbard 7%
$25,575 Vol.
$25,575 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$2,694 Vol.
34%
Howard Lutnick
$938 Vol.
18%
Pete Hegseth
$1,604 Vol.
14%
Tulsi Gabbard
$1,330 Vol.
7%
Scott Turner
$1,283 Vol.
5%
Lee Zeldin
$2,098 Vol.
4%
Russell T. Vought
$672 Vol.
4%
Scott Bessent
$809 Vol.
7%
Brooke Rollins
$1,438 Vol.
3%
Sean Duffy
$852 Vol.
3%
Susie Wiles
$908 Vol.
3%
Nessuno prima del 2027
$756 Vol.
2%
Linda McMahon
$684 Vol.
2%
Kelly Loeffler
$1,038 Vol.
2%
Marco Rubio
$974 Vol.
2%
Mike Waltz
$1,016 Vol.
1%
Jamieson Greer
$1,180 Vol.
1%
Doug Burgum
$762 Vol.
1%
John Ratcliffe
$875 Vol.
1%
J.D. Vance
$823 Vol.
1%
Chris Wright
$779 Vol.
1%
Doug Collins
$780 Vol.
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$1,281 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads trader consensus at 34.5% implied probability as the next Trump Cabinet departure following Attorney General Pam Bondi's ouster on April 2 and DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's removal in early March, driven by reports of White House discussions targeting her amid ongoing internal investigations into alleged misconduct, including civil rights complaints at the Labor Department and multiple staff exits since March. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick trails at 18% due to earlier February scrutiny over Epstein ties, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sits at 13.5% amid persistent operational controversies. Key differentiators include Chavez-DeRemer's active probes and personal scandals versus others' resolved or dated issues; odds could consolidate on an official resignation announcement, firing, or escalation in her case, with Trump's history of high Cabinet turnover amplifying uncertainty ahead of any further shake-up.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$25,575Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads trader consensus at 34.5% implied probability as the next Trump Cabinet departure following Attorney General Pam Bondi's ouster on April 2 and DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's removal in early March, driven by reports of White House discussions targeting her amid ongoing internal investigations into alleged misconduct, including civil rights complaints at the Labor Department and multiple staff exits since March. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick trails at 18% due to earlier February scrutiny over Epstein ties, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sits at 13.5% amid persistent operational controversies. Key differentiators include Chavez-DeRemer's active probes and personal scandals versus others' resolved or dated issues; odds could consolidate on an official resignation announcement, firing, or escalation in her case, with Trump's history of high Cabinet turnover amplifying uncertainty ahead of any further shake-up.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$25,575Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads trader consensus at 34.5% implied probability as the next Trump Cabinet departure following Attorney General Pam Bondi's ouster on April 2 and DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's removal in early March, driven by reports of White House discussions targeting her amid ongoing internal investigations into alleged misconduct, including civil rights complaints at the Labor Department and multiple staff exits since March. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick trails at 18% due to earlier February scrutiny over Epstein ties, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sits at 13.5% amid persistent operational controversies. Key differentiators include Chavez-DeRemer's active probes and personal scandals versus others' resolved or dated issues; odds could consolidate on an official resignation announcement, firing, or escalation in her case, with Trump's history of high Cabinet turnover amplifying uncertainty ahead of any further shake-up.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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