Trader consensus prices a 92.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, driven by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) consolidation of de facto power following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026. Despite nationwide protests, economic freefall from infrastructure damage and a U.S. naval blockade, and leadership transitions to hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei, the IRGC has intensified crackdowns with fast-tracked executions and arrests of January demonstrators, preventing mass defections or uprisings. Recent ceasefire talks faltered in early April amid an IRGC drone strike on April 14, but command structures hold firm, echoing historical repression patterns; renewed escalation, fractures, or diplomatic breakthroughs could still shift odds in the 75 days remaining.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl regime iraniano cadrà entro il 30 giugno?
Il regime iraniano cadrà entro il 30 giugno?
Sì
$31,211,555 Vol.
$31,211,555 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sì
$31,211,555 Vol.
$31,211,555 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a 92.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, driven by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) consolidation of de facto power following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026. Despite nationwide protests, economic freefall from infrastructure damage and a U.S. naval blockade, and leadership transitions to hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei, the IRGC has intensified crackdowns with fast-tracked executions and arrests of January demonstrators, preventing mass defections or uprisings. Recent ceasefire talks faltered in early April amid an IRGC drone strike on April 14, but command structures hold firm, echoing historical repression patterns; renewed escalation, fractures, or diplomatic breakthroughs could still shift odds in the 75 days remaining.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$31,211,555Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a 92.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, driven by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) consolidation of de facto power following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026. Despite nationwide protests, economic freefall from infrastructure damage and a U.S. naval blockade, and leadership transitions to hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei, the IRGC has intensified crackdowns with fast-tracked executions and arrests of January demonstrators, preventing mass defections or uprisings. Recent ceasefire talks faltered in early April amid an IRGC drone strike on April 14, but command structures hold firm, echoing historical repression patterns; renewed escalation, fractures, or diplomatic breakthroughs could still shift odds in the 75 days remaining.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$31,211,948Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 92.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, driven by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) consolidation of de facto power following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026. Despite nationwide protests, economic freefall from infrastructure damage and a U.S. naval blockade, and leadership transitions to hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei, the IRGC has intensified crackdowns with fast-tracked executions and arrests of January demonstrators, preventing mass defections or uprisings. Recent ceasefire talks faltered in early April amid an IRGC drone strike on April 14, but command structures hold firm, echoing historical repression patterns; renewed escalation, fractures, or diplomatic breakthroughs could still shift odds in the 75 days remaining.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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