Recent nationwide polls from multiple firms, including Research Co., Liaison Strategies, and Abacus Data in early August 2026, show the Liberal Party under Prime Minister Mark Carney holding double-digit leads of 13 to 20 points over the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and The Writ indicate the Liberals would secure a large majority if an election occurred now, with Conservative support continuing to decline. This follows the Liberals' 2025 election victory and subsequent consolidation of a parliamentary majority. Traders assign a 95.7% probability against a Conservative seat flip in 2026 due to the sustained and widening polling gap across battleground regions. Potential shifts could arise from sharp economic changes, Conservative leadership adjustments, or unexpected scandals before the next scheduled vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
5% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Recent nationwide polls from multiple firms, including Research Co., Liaison Strategies, and Abacus Data in early August 2026, show the Liberal Party under Prime Minister Mark Carney holding double-digit leads of 13 to 20 points over the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and The Writ indicate the Liberals would secure a large majority if an election occurred now, with Conservative support continuing to decline. This follows the Liberals' 2025 election victory and subsequent consolidation of a parliamentary majority. Traders assign a 95.7% probability against a Conservative seat flip in 2026 due to the sustained and widening polling gap across battleground regions. Potential shifts could arise from sharp economic changes, Conservative leadership adjustments, or unexpected scandals before the next scheduled vote.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
マーケット開始日： Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ET
音量
$8,076終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Recent nationwide polls from multiple firms, including Research Co., Liaison Strategies, and Abacus Data in early August 2026, show the Liberal Party under Prime Minister Mark Carney holding double-digit leads of 13 to 20 points over the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and The Writ indicate the Liberals would secure a large majority if an election occurred now, with Conservative support continuing to decline. This follows the Liberals' 2025 election victory and subsequent consolidation of a parliamentary majority. Traders assign a 95.7% probability against a Conservative seat flip in 2026 due to the sustained and widening polling gap across battleground regions. Potential shifts could arise from sharp economic changes, Conservative leadership adjustments, or unexpected scandals before the next scheduled vote.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
音量
$8,076終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent nationwide polls from multiple firms, including Research Co., Liaison Strategies, and Abacus Data in early August 2026, show the Liberal Party under Prime Minister Mark Carney holding double-digit leads of 13 to 20 points over the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and The Writ indicate the Liberals would secure a large majority if an election occurred now, with Conservative support continuing to decline. This follows the Liberals' 2025 election victory and subsequent consolidation of a parliamentary majority. Traders assign a 95.7% probability against a Conservative seat flip in 2026 due to the sustained and widening polling gap across battleground regions. Potential shifts could arise from sharp economic changes, Conservative leadership adjustments, or unexpected scandals before the next scheduled vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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