Recent polling shows the Liberal Party under Prime Minister Mark Carney maintaining a consistent 14- to 16-point national lead over the Conservatives, with vote intentions near 47-49% for the Liberals versus 32-33% for the opposition. This has translated into 338Canada seat projections of roughly 228 Liberal seats against 78 for the Conservatives as of mid-September 2026. High personal approval ratings for Carney (57-66%) and external factors such as U.S. policy developments have reinforced Liberal positioning across most regions. With the next federal election not due until 2029 and no scheduled by-elections or major leadership changes imminent, these trends underpin trader expectations that the Conservatives will not overtake Liberals in seat projections through year-end. Late developments capable of shifting the outlook remain limited to unforeseen events such as a significant scandal or abrupt change in economic conditions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日4% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
4% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Recent polling shows the Liberal Party under Prime Minister Mark Carney maintaining a consistent 14- to 16-point national lead over the Conservatives, with vote intentions near 47-49% for the Liberals versus 32-33% for the opposition. This has translated into 338Canada seat projections of roughly 228 Liberal seats against 78 for the Conservatives as of mid-September 2026. High personal approval ratings for Carney (57-66%) and external factors such as U.S. policy developments have reinforced Liberal positioning across most regions. With the next federal election not due until 2029 and no scheduled by-elections or major leadership changes imminent, these trends underpin trader expectations that the Conservatives will not overtake Liberals in seat projections through year-end. Late developments capable of shifting the outlook remain limited to unforeseen events such as a significant scandal or abrupt change in economic conditions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
マーケット開始日： Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ET
音量
$8,241終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Recent polling shows the Liberal Party under Prime Minister Mark Carney maintaining a consistent 14- to 16-point national lead over the Conservatives, with vote intentions near 47-49% for the Liberals versus 32-33% for the opposition. This has translated into 338Canada seat projections of roughly 228 Liberal seats against 78 for the Conservatives as of mid-September 2026. High personal approval ratings for Carney (57-66%) and external factors such as U.S. policy developments have reinforced Liberal positioning across most regions. With the next federal election not due until 2029 and no scheduled by-elections or major leadership changes imminent, these trends underpin trader expectations that the Conservatives will not overtake Liberals in seat projections through year-end. Late developments capable of shifting the outlook remain limited to unforeseen events such as a significant scandal or abrupt change in economic conditions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
音量
$8,241終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent polling shows the Liberal Party under Prime Minister Mark Carney maintaining a consistent 14- to 16-point national lead over the Conservatives, with vote intentions near 47-49% for the Liberals versus 32-33% for the opposition. This has translated into 338Canada seat projections of roughly 228 Liberal seats against 78 for the Conservatives as of mid-September 2026. High personal approval ratings for Carney (57-66%) and external factors such as U.S. policy developments have reinforced Liberal positioning across most regions. With the next federal election not due until 2029 and no scheduled by-elections or major leadership changes imminent, these trends underpin trader expectations that the Conservatives will not overtake Liberals in seat projections through year-end. Late developments capable of shifting the outlook remain limited to unforeseen events such as a significant scandal or abrupt change in economic conditions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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