A fragile two-week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan on April 8, 2026, has largely held amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, with Iran pausing major retaliatory strikes against Israel or US regional bases following its earlier missile and drone barrages. Tensions persist as Israel continues airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon—deemed violations by Tehran—prompting Iranian officials to warn of "crushing retaliation" if attacks do not cease. On April 16, Pakistani mediators met Iranian leaders in Tehran, signaling potential nuclear program breakthroughs and Strait of Hormuz reopening. The truce nears expiration around April 22, with US-Iran talks slated for Islamabad; breakdown could spur escalation before April 30 resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$4,023,023 Vol.
2026/04/30
イラク
100%
バーレーン
40%
カタール
22%
ヨルダン
7%
オマーン
6%
キプロス
4%
レバノン
4%
シリア
4%
アゼルバイジャン
4%
トルコ
3%
アフガニスタン
3%
ポーランド
2%
パキスタン
2%
ウクライナ
2%
イエメン
2%
アルメニア
1%
イギリス
1%
イタリア
1%
ジョージア
1%
インド
1%
フランス
1%
ドイツ
1%
スペイン
1%
ハンガリー
1%
$4,023,023 Vol.
イラク
$1,985,299 Vol.
100%
バーレーン
$99,407 Vol.
40%
カタール
$79,343 Vol.
22%
ヨルダン
$11,844 Vol.
7%
オマーン
$62,831 Vol.
6%
キプロス
$18,139 Vol.
4%
レバノン
$42,073 Vol.
4%
シリア
$12,367 Vol.
4%
アゼルバイジャン
$37,978 Vol.
4%
トルコ
$19,292 Vol.
3%
アフガニスタン
$1,729 Vol.
3%
ポーランド
$35,838 Vol.
2%
パキスタン
$13,591 Vol.
2%
ウクライナ
$14,538 Vol.
2%
イエメン
$8,383 Vol.
2%
アルメニア
$3,313 Vol.
1%
イギリス
$25,115 Vol.
1%
イタリア
$1,353 Vol.
1%
ジョージア
$7,270 Vol.
1%
インド
$19,286 Vol.
1%
フランス
$31,222 Vol.
1%
ドイツ
$18,013 Vol.
1%
スペイン
$7,038 Vol.
1%
ハンガリー
$14,579 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan on April 8, 2026, has largely held amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, with Iran pausing major retaliatory strikes against Israel or US regional bases following its earlier missile and drone barrages. Tensions persist as Israel continues airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon—deemed violations by Tehran—prompting Iranian officials to warn of "crushing retaliation" if attacks do not cease. On April 16, Pakistani mediators met Iranian leaders in Tehran, signaling potential nuclear program breakthroughs and Strait of Hormuz reopening. The truce nears expiration around April 22, with US-Iran talks slated for Islamabad; breakdown could spur escalation before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
マーケット開始日： Apr 7, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
音量
$4,023,023終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Apr 7, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: はい
異議申し立て
提案された結果: はい
異議申し立て
最終審査
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan on April 8, 2026, has largely held amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, with Iran pausing major retaliatory strikes against Israel or US regional bases following its earlier missile and drone barrages. Tensions persist as Israel continues airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon—deemed violations by Tehran—prompting Iranian officials to warn of "crushing retaliation" if attacks do not cease. On April 16, Pakistani mediators met Iranian leaders in Tehran, signaling potential nuclear program breakthroughs and Strait of Hormuz reopening. The truce nears expiration around April 22, with US-Iran talks slated for Islamabad; breakdown could spur escalation before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$4,023,023終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Apr 7, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: はい
異議申し立て
提案された結果: はい
異議申し立て
最終審査
A fragile two-week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan on April 8, 2026, has largely held amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, with Iran pausing major retaliatory strikes against Israel or US regional bases following its earlier missile and drone barrages. Tensions persist as Israel continues airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon—deemed violations by Tehran—prompting Iranian officials to warn of "crushing retaliation" if attacks do not cease. On April 16, Pakistani mediators met Iranian leaders in Tehran, signaling potential nuclear program breakthroughs and Strait of Hormuz reopening. The truce nears expiration around April 22, with US-Iran talks slated for Islamabad; breakdown could spur escalation before April 30 resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
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