Amid a fragile US-brokered ceasefire on April 7-8 in the 2026 Iran war, Polymarket traders price a 47% implied probability of Iranian drone, missile, or airstrikes on Bahrain by April 30—up recently amid Bahraini diplomatic protests over drones allegedly launched from Iraq—while Iraq and Israel outcomes resolved Yes following verified prior attacks on their soil. Qatar sits at 21%, with other Gulf states and neighbors below 10%, reflecting de-escalation from no confirmed direct strikes since the truce, bolstered by US-Iran negotiation groundwork announced April 15 and Israel-Lebanon talks. Risks persist from the US Strait of Hormuz blockade, Israeli airstrikes, and potential ceasefire breakdowns before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$3,947,027 Vol.
2026/04/30
イラク
100%
バーレーン
47%
カタール
20%
オマーン
7%
ヨルダン
6%
キプロス
4%
レバノン
4%
アゼルバイジャン
4%
シリア
4%
アフガニスタン
3%
トルコ
2%
パキスタン
2%
ポーランド
2%
イエメン
2%
ハンガリー
2%
ウクライナ
2%
アルメニア
1%
イギリス
1%
フランス
1%
イタリア
1%
ジョージア
1%
ドイツ
1%
スペイン
1%
インド
1%
$3,947,027 Vol.
イラク
$1,958,132 Vol.
100%
バーレーン
$60,664 Vol.
47%
カタール
$78,076 Vol.
20%
オマーン
$62,698 Vol.
7%
ヨルダン
$11,802 Vol.
6%
キプロス
$18,117 Vol.
4%
レバノン
$42,056 Vol.
4%
アゼルバイジャン
$37,845 Vol.
4%
シリア
$12,344 Vol.
4%
アフガニスタン
$1,697 Vol.
3%
トルコ
$18,008 Vol.
2%
パキスタン
$13,576 Vol.
2%
ポーランド
$35,752 Vol.
2%
イエメン
$8,370 Vol.
2%
ハンガリー
$14,537 Vol.
2%
ウクライナ
$14,538 Vol.
2%
アルメニア
$3,308 Vol.
1%
イギリス
$25,108 Vol.
1%
フランス
$30,636 Vol.
1%
イタリア
$1,353 Vol.
1%
ジョージア
$7,269 Vol.
1%
ドイツ
$16,236 Vol.
1%
スペイン
$6,898 Vol.
1%
インド
$14,303 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid a fragile US-brokered ceasefire on April 7-8 in the 2026 Iran war, Polymarket traders price a 47% implied probability of Iranian drone, missile, or airstrikes on Bahrain by April 30—up recently amid Bahraini diplomatic protests over drones allegedly launched from Iraq—while Iraq and Israel outcomes resolved Yes following verified prior attacks on their soil. Qatar sits at 21%, with other Gulf states and neighbors below 10%, reflecting de-escalation from no confirmed direct strikes since the truce, bolstered by US-Iran negotiation groundwork announced April 15 and Israel-Lebanon talks. Risks persist from the US Strait of Hormuz blockade, Israeli airstrikes, and potential ceasefire breakdowns before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
音量
$3,947,027終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: はい
異議申し立て
提案された結果: はい
異議申し立て
最終審査
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid a fragile US-brokered ceasefire on April 7-8 in the 2026 Iran war, Polymarket traders price a 47% implied probability of Iranian drone, missile, or airstrikes on Bahrain by April 30—up recently amid Bahraini diplomatic protests over drones allegedly launched from Iraq—while Iraq and Israel outcomes resolved Yes following verified prior attacks on their soil. Qatar sits at 21%, with other Gulf states and neighbors below 10%, reflecting de-escalation from no confirmed direct strikes since the truce, bolstered by US-Iran negotiation groundwork announced April 15 and Israel-Lebanon talks. Risks persist from the US Strait of Hormuz blockade, Israeli airstrikes, and potential ceasefire breakdowns before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$3,947,027終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: はい
異議申し立て
提案された結果: はい
異議申し立て
最終審査
Amid a fragile US-brokered ceasefire on April 7-8 in the 2026 Iran war, Polymarket traders price a 47% implied probability of Iranian drone, missile, or airstrikes on Bahrain by April 30—up recently amid Bahraini diplomatic protests over drones allegedly launched from Iraq—while Iraq and Israel outcomes resolved Yes following verified prior attacks on their soil. Qatar sits at 21%, with other Gulf states and neighbors below 10%, reflecting de-escalation from no confirmed direct strikes since the truce, bolstered by US-Iran negotiation groundwork announced April 15 and Israel-Lebanon talks. Risks persist from the US Strait of Hormuz blockade, Israeli airstrikes, and potential ceasefire breakdowns before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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