Recent polling for the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election shows Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched in late August by retired Brigadier General Ofer Winter, consistently hovering near the 3.25% electoral threshold. Surveys from mid-September place its projected seat totals at 0–6, reflecting vote shares mostly between roughly 2–5%, as the party draws support from Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionist voters while facing competition from the Religious Zionism–Zehut alliance. Early post-launch polls indicated stronger performance of 5–8 seats, but subsequent surveys have shown stabilization or slight declines amid undecided voters and list finalization on September 7. Trader consensus centers probabilities on the narrow band around the threshold because new-party results remain volatile and sensitive to turnout among right-wing blocs.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日3.25〜4% 37%
2.5％未満 29%
5%以上 28%
4〜5％ 25%
新規
新規
2026/11/30
2.5％未満
16%
2.5〜3.25％
19%
3.25〜4%
43%
4〜5％
25%
5%以上
24%
3.25〜4% 37%
2.5％未満 29%
5%以上 28%
4〜5％ 25%
新規
新規
2026/11/30
2.5％未満
$243 Vol.
16%
2.5〜3.25％
$78 Vol.
19%
3.25〜4%
$103 Vol.
43%
4〜5％
$29 Vol.
25%
5%以上
$106 Vol.
24%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election shows Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched in late August by retired Brigadier General Ofer Winter, consistently hovering near the 3.25% electoral threshold. Surveys from mid-September place its projected seat totals at 0–6, reflecting vote shares mostly between roughly 2–5%, as the party draws support from Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionist voters while facing competition from the Religious Zionism–Zehut alliance. Early post-launch polls indicated stronger performance of 5–8 seats, but subsequent surveys have shown stabilization or slight declines amid undecided voters and list finalization on September 7. Trader consensus centers probabilities on the narrow band around the threshold because new-party results remain volatile and sensitive to turnout among right-wing blocs.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
マーケット開始日： Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
音量
$558終了日
2026/10/27マーケット開始日
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETLegislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election shows Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched in late August by retired Brigadier General Ofer Winter, consistently hovering near the 3.25% electoral threshold. Surveys from mid-September place its projected seat totals at 0–6, reflecting vote shares mostly between roughly 2–5%, as the party draws support from Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionist voters while facing competition from the Religious Zionism–Zehut alliance. Early post-launch polls indicated stronger performance of 5–8 seats, but subsequent surveys have shown stabilization or slight declines amid undecided voters and list finalization on September 7. Trader consensus centers probabilities on the narrow band around the threshold because new-party results remain volatile and sensitive to turnout among right-wing blocs.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
音量
$558終了日
2026/10/27マーケット開始日
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETRecent polling for the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election shows Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched in late August by retired Brigadier General Ofer Winter, consistently hovering near the 3.25% electoral threshold. Surveys from mid-September place its projected seat totals at 0–6, reflecting vote shares mostly between roughly 2–5%, as the party draws support from Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionist voters while facing competition from the Religious Zionism–Zehut alliance. Early post-launch polls indicated stronger performance of 5–8 seats, but subsequent surveys have shown stabilization or slight declines amid undecided voters and list finalization on September 7. Trader consensus centers probabilities on the narrow band around the threshold because new-party results remain volatile and sensitive to turnout among right-wing blocs.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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