Democrat Amish Shah holds a substantial edge over Republican Jay Feely in the open Arizona 1st congressional district race, with trader pricing reflecting the seat’s narrow Republican lean, recent Democratic targeting of suburban Phoenix voters, and the departure of longtime incumbent David Schweikert for a gubernatorial bid. Shah, the 2024 nominee who came within three points of victory, benefits from residual name identification after defeating a better-funded primary challenger. Feely, a former NFL kicker backed by President Trump and the NRCC, faces the challenge of establishing statewide recognition in a district that split its presidential and Senate votes in 2024. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or lean Democratic, with the outcome likely to hinge on turnout among independents and suburban moderates ahead of the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
75%
共和党
26%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$5,615 Vol.
75%
共和党
$1,195 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democrat Amish Shah holds a substantial edge over Republican Jay Feely in the open Arizona 1st congressional district race, with trader pricing reflecting the seat’s narrow Republican lean, recent Democratic targeting of suburban Phoenix voters, and the departure of longtime incumbent David Schweikert for a gubernatorial bid. Shah, the 2024 nominee who came within three points of victory, benefits from residual name identification after defeating a better-funded primary challenger. Feely, a former NFL kicker backed by President Trump and the NRCC, faces the challenge of establishing statewide recognition in a district that split its presidential and Senate votes in 2024. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or lean Democratic, with the outcome likely to hinge on turnout among independents and suburban moderates ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ET
音量
$6,810終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democrat Amish Shah holds a substantial edge over Republican Jay Feely in the open Arizona 1st congressional district race, with trader pricing reflecting the seat’s narrow Republican lean, recent Democratic targeting of suburban Phoenix voters, and the departure of longtime incumbent David Schweikert for a gubernatorial bid. Shah, the 2024 nominee who came within three points of victory, benefits from residual name identification after defeating a better-funded primary challenger. Feely, a former NFL kicker backed by President Trump and the NRCC, faces the challenge of establishing statewide recognition in a district that split its presidential and Senate votes in 2024. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or lean Democratic, with the outcome likely to hinge on turnout among independents and suburban moderates ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$6,810終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democrat Amish Shah holds a substantial edge over Republican Jay Feely in the open Arizona 1st congressional district race, with trader pricing reflecting the seat’s narrow Republican lean, recent Democratic targeting of suburban Phoenix voters, and the departure of longtime incumbent David Schweikert for a gubernatorial bid. Shah, the 2024 nominee who came within three points of victory, benefits from residual name identification after defeating a better-funded primary challenger. Feely, a former NFL kicker backed by President Trump and the NRCC, faces the challenge of establishing statewide recognition in a district that split its presidential and Senate votes in 2024. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or lean Democratic, with the outcome likely to hinge on turnout among independents and suburban moderates ahead of the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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