Incumbent Republican Eli Crane faces Democratic challenger Jonathan Nez, a former Navajo Nation president, in the November 3, 2026, general election for Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District. The seat carries a modest Republican lean, with Crane winning the 2024 rematch by nine points amid strong Native American turnout favoring Nez in counties like Apache and Coconino. Primaries on July 21, 2026, confirmed both nominees without significant opposition. Limited recent polling shows Crane narrowly ahead, while the district’s demographics, incumbency advantages, and historical voting patterns sustain Republican trader consensus near 63 percent. Nez’s targeted mobilization efforts and fundraising keep the race competitive enough for Democrats to hold roughly 37 percent implied probability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
共和党
63%
民主党
38%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
共和党
$426 Vol.
63%
民主党
$267 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Eli Crane faces Democratic challenger Jonathan Nez, a former Navajo Nation president, in the November 3, 2026, general election for Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District. The seat carries a modest Republican lean, with Crane winning the 2024 rematch by nine points amid strong Native American turnout favoring Nez in counties like Apache and Coconino. Primaries on July 21, 2026, confirmed both nominees without significant opposition. Limited recent polling shows Crane narrowly ahead, while the district’s demographics, incumbency advantages, and historical voting patterns sustain Republican trader consensus near 63 percent. Nez’s targeted mobilization efforts and fundraising keep the race competitive enough for Democrats to hold roughly 37 percent implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
音量
$693終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Eli Crane faces Democratic challenger Jonathan Nez, a former Navajo Nation president, in the November 3, 2026, general election for Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District. The seat carries a modest Republican lean, with Crane winning the 2024 rematch by nine points amid strong Native American turnout favoring Nez in counties like Apache and Coconino. Primaries on July 21, 2026, confirmed both nominees without significant opposition. Limited recent polling shows Crane narrowly ahead, while the district’s demographics, incumbency advantages, and historical voting patterns sustain Republican trader consensus near 63 percent. Nez’s targeted mobilization efforts and fundraising keep the race competitive enough for Democrats to hold roughly 37 percent implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$693終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Eli Crane faces Democratic challenger Jonathan Nez, a former Navajo Nation president, in the November 3, 2026, general election for Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District. The seat carries a modest Republican lean, with Crane winning the 2024 rematch by nine points amid strong Native American turnout favoring Nez in counties like Apache and Coconino. Primaries on July 21, 2026, confirmed both nominees without significant opposition. Limited recent polling shows Crane narrowly ahead, while the district’s demographics, incumbency advantages, and historical voting patterns sustain Republican trader consensus near 63 percent. Nez’s targeted mobilization efforts and fundraising keep the race competitive enough for Democrats to hold roughly 37 percent implied probability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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