Republican incumbent Eli Crane holds a structural edge in Arizona’s 2nd congressional district, which carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+7 and has been rated Likely Republican by major forecasters. Crane’s 2024 reelection margin of 54.5% to 45.5% against Democrat Jonathan Nez, combined with his substantial cash-on-hand advantage, underpins trader positioning favoring the GOP. The July 21, 2026 primaries remain the next procedural milestone, with Nez positioned as the leading Democratic contender; however, the district’s northeastern Arizona composition, including rural and tribal areas, has historically supported Republican outcomes. No major late-breaking developments have altered the baseline dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
共和党
50%
民主党
36%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
共和党
$393 Vol.
50%
民主党
$257 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Eli Crane holds a structural edge in Arizona’s 2nd congressional district, which carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+7 and has been rated Likely Republican by major forecasters. Crane’s 2024 reelection margin of 54.5% to 45.5% against Democrat Jonathan Nez, combined with his substantial cash-on-hand advantage, underpins trader positioning favoring the GOP. The July 21, 2026 primaries remain the next procedural milestone, with Nez positioned as the leading Democratic contender; however, the district’s northeastern Arizona composition, including rural and tribal areas, has historically supported Republican outcomes. No major late-breaking developments have altered the baseline dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
音量
$650終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Eli Crane holds a structural edge in Arizona’s 2nd congressional district, which carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+7 and has been rated Likely Republican by major forecasters. Crane’s 2024 reelection margin of 54.5% to 45.5% against Democrat Jonathan Nez, combined with his substantial cash-on-hand advantage, underpins trader positioning favoring the GOP. The July 21, 2026 primaries remain the next procedural milestone, with Nez positioned as the leading Democratic contender; however, the district’s northeastern Arizona composition, including rural and tribal areas, has historically supported Republican outcomes. No major late-breaking developments have altered the baseline dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$650終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Eli Crane holds a structural edge in Arizona’s 2nd congressional district, which carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+7 and has been rated Likely Republican by major forecasters. Crane’s 2024 reelection margin of 54.5% to 45.5% against Democrat Jonathan Nez, combined with his substantial cash-on-hand advantage, underpins trader positioning favoring the GOP. The July 21, 2026 primaries remain the next procedural milestone, with Nez positioned as the leading Democratic contender; however, the district’s northeastern Arizona composition, including rural and tribal areas, has historically supported Republican outcomes. No major late-breaking developments have altered the baseline dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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