Current ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate overnight lows in Beijing on August 26 most likely between 20–23 °C under typical late-summer conditions featuring variable cloud cover and scattered thundershowers. Trader sentiment clusters around 21–22 °C because these outcomes align with the median of recent runs, while the sizable share for 17 °C or below reflects tail risk from stronger radiative cooling on clearer nights or heavier rain-cooled air masses. Differentiation among bins stems primarily from uncertainty in minimum timing relative to any precipitation and local wind patterns that modulate surface heat loss. The China Meteorological Administration and international centers will release updated guidance and high-resolution model outputs over the next 48 hours, directly informing final resolution.