**Recent forecasts and persistent summer warmth position mid-teens Celsius as the most likely minimums for London on August 9.** Official guidance and ensemble models from sources like the Met Office indicate overnight lows around 14°C under continuing above-average conditions, with urban heat-island effects in central London often adding 1–3°C to rural baselines and limiting radiative cooling overnight. The 2026 summer has featured record daytime and nighttime temperatures, with mean values running well above long-term averages and overnight readings at elevated levels through early August. This context drives the market-implied probabilities, with 17°C (39.5%), 16°C (28.0%), and 18°C (23.0%) leading because they align with the current warm anomaly and typical August minimum ranges of 13–17°C when high pressure dominates. Traders are weighting the reduced likelihood of sharp nocturnal drops, while lower outcomes (15°C or below) carry smaller probabilities reflecting only modest forecast uncertainty or localized cooling. Key upcoming inputs include the next Met Office and ECMWF model runs, which will refine wind, cloud cover, and boundary-layer details ahead of the 24-hour period ending August 9.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月9日のロンドンの最低気温は？
8月9日のロンドンの最低気温は？
17°C 47%
16℃ 28%
18°C 23%
19°C 4%
新規
新規
2026/08/09
12°C以下
<1%
13℃
<1%
14℃
<1%
15°C
3%
16℃
28%
17°C
47%
18°C
23%
19°C
4%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22℃以上
<1%
17°C 47%
16℃ 28%
18°C 23%
19°C 4%
新規
新規
2026/08/09
12°C以下
$63 Vol.
<1%
13℃
$53 Vol.
<1%
14℃
$59 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$130 Vol.
3%
16℃
$2,129 Vol.
28%
17°C
$1,894 Vol.
47%
18°C
$373 Vol.
23%
19°C
$141 Vol.
4%
20°C
$410 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$69 Vol.
<1%
22℃以上
$58 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts and persistent summer warmth position mid-teens Celsius as the most likely minimums for London on August 9.** Official guidance and ensemble models from sources like the Met Office indicate overnight lows around 14°C under continuing above-average conditions, with urban heat-island effects in central London often adding 1–3°C to rural baselines and limiting radiative cooling overnight. The 2026 summer has featured record daytime and nighttime temperatures, with mean values running well above long-term averages and overnight readings at elevated levels through early August.
This context drives the market-implied probabilities, with 17°C (39.5%), 16°C (28.0%), and 18°C (23.0%) leading because they align with the current warm anomaly and typical August minimum ranges of 13–17°C when high pressure dominates. Traders are weighting the reduced likelihood of sharp nocturnal drops, while lower outcomes (15°C or below) carry smaller probabilities reflecting only modest forecast uncertainty or localized cooling. Key upcoming inputs include the next Met Office and ECMWF model runs, which will refine wind, cloud cover, and boundary-layer details ahead of the 24-hour period ending August 9.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
音量
$5,378終了日
2026/08/09マーケット開始日
Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts and persistent summer warmth position mid-teens Celsius as the most likely minimums for London on August 9.** Official guidance and ensemble models from sources like the Met Office indicate overnight lows around 14°C under continuing above-average conditions, with urban heat-island effects in central London often adding 1–3°C to rural baselines and limiting radiative cooling overnight. The 2026 summer has featured record daytime and nighttime temperatures, with mean values running well above long-term averages and overnight readings at elevated levels through early August.
This context drives the market-implied probabilities, with 17°C (39.5%), 16°C (28.0%), and 18°C (23.0%) leading because they align with the current warm anomaly and typical August minimum ranges of 13–17°C when high pressure dominates. Traders are weighting the reduced likelihood of sharp nocturnal drops, while lower outcomes (15°C or below) carry smaller probabilities reflecting only modest forecast uncertainty or localized cooling. Key upcoming inputs include the next Met Office and ECMWF model runs, which will refine wind, cloud cover, and boundary-layer details ahead of the 24-hour period ending August 9.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$5,378終了日
2026/08/09マーケット開始日
Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET**Recent forecasts and persistent summer warmth position mid-teens Celsius as the most likely minimums for London on August 9.** Official guidance and ensemble models from sources like the Met Office indicate overnight lows around 14°C under continuing above-average conditions, with urban heat-island effects in central London often adding 1–3°C to rural baselines and limiting radiative cooling overnight. The 2026 summer has featured record daytime and nighttime temperatures, with mean values running well above long-term averages and overnight readings at elevated levels through early August. This context drives the market-implied probabilities, with 17°C (39.5%), 16°C (28.0%), and 18°C (23.0%) leading because they align with the current warm anomaly and typical August minimum ranges of 13–17°C when high pressure dominates. Traders are weighting the reduced likelihood of sharp nocturnal drops, while lower outcomes (15°C or below) carry smaller probabilities reflecting only modest forecast uncertainty or localized cooling. Key upcoming inputs include the next Met Office and ECMWF model runs, which will refine wind, cloud cover, and boundary-layer details ahead of the 24-hour period ending August 9.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問