National Weather Service guidance for Central Park, the official resolution station for NYC temperatures, forecasts an overnight low near 65–67°F on April 15 amid mostly cloudy conditions and light southerly winds from a persistent upper-level ridge promoting warm air advection well above the mid-April climatological average of 48°F. This aligns with trader consensus favoring the 64-65°F outcome at 34.5% implied probability, supported by tight GFS and ECMWF ensemble agreement, though slight model divergences in cloud cover timing and wind shear create uncertainty spilling into 62-63°F (11%) and lower bins. Key variables include pre-dawn radiative cooling potential under partial clearing (favoring cooler outcomes), urban heat island mitigation of drops below 62°F, and any late-afternoon warm front reinforcement (pushing toward 66°F+). Evening NWS updates and hourly observations will sharpen probabilities before resolution.