Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson holds an 87.5% implied probability in the Michigan governor race after securing her party's nomination in the August 4 primary, while Republican U.S. Representative John James sits at 13.5% following his own primary victory. Recent polls, including an AARP survey from August 9-11 showing Benson at 49% to James at 44% among likely voters and similar leads in TIPP and Fox News surveys, have reinforced this positioning in the weeks since the primaries. Benson benefits from the continuity of Democratic control of the governorship under term-limited incumbent Gretchen Whitmer, strong fundraising, and endorsements from state party figures, while James faces the challenge of Republicans' long drought in winning statewide offices despite Michigan's swing-state status and Donald Trump's 2024 presidential win there. Independent and third-party options register near zero support. Forecasters rate the contest Lean or Tilt Democratic heading into November, with the gap reflecting consistent polling margins and structural factors rather than recent volatility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日民主党 88%
共和党 14%
無所属 <1%
$198,922 Vol.
$198,922 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
88%
共和党
14%
無所属
<1%
民主党 88%
共和党 14%
無所属 <1%
$198,922 Vol.
$198,922 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
$47,537 Vol.
88%
共和党
$150,632 Vol.
14%
無所属
$753 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson holds an 87.5% implied probability in the Michigan governor race after securing her party's nomination in the August 4 primary, while Republican U.S. Representative John James sits at 13.5% following his own primary victory. Recent polls, including an AARP survey from August 9-11 showing Benson at 49% to James at 44% among likely voters and similar leads in TIPP and Fox News surveys, have reinforced this positioning in the weeks since the primaries. Benson benefits from the continuity of Democratic control of the governorship under term-limited incumbent Gretchen Whitmer, strong fundraising, and endorsements from state party figures, while James faces the challenge of Republicans' long drought in winning statewide offices despite Michigan's swing-state status and Donald Trump's 2024 presidential win there. Independent and third-party options register near zero support. Forecasters rate the contest Lean or Tilt Democratic heading into November, with the gap reflecting consistent polling margins and structural factors rather than recent volatility.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ET
音量
$198,922終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson holds an 87.5% implied probability in the Michigan governor race after securing her party's nomination in the August 4 primary, while Republican U.S. Representative John James sits at 13.5% following his own primary victory. Recent polls, including an AARP survey from August 9-11 showing Benson at 49% to James at 44% among likely voters and similar leads in TIPP and Fox News surveys, have reinforced this positioning in the weeks since the primaries. Benson benefits from the continuity of Democratic control of the governorship under term-limited incumbent Gretchen Whitmer, strong fundraising, and endorsements from state party figures, while James faces the challenge of Republicans' long drought in winning statewide offices despite Michigan's swing-state status and Donald Trump's 2024 presidential win there. Independent and third-party options register near zero support. Forecasters rate the contest Lean or Tilt Democratic heading into November, with the gap reflecting consistent polling margins and structural factors rather than recent volatility.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$198,922終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson holds an 87.5% implied probability in the Michigan governor race after securing her party's nomination in the August 4 primary, while Republican U.S. Representative John James sits at 13.5% following his own primary victory. Recent polls, including an AARP survey from August 9-11 showing Benson at 49% to James at 44% among likely voters and similar leads in TIPP and Fox News surveys, have reinforced this positioning in the weeks since the primaries. Benson benefits from the continuity of Democratic control of the governorship under term-limited incumbent Gretchen Whitmer, strong fundraising, and endorsements from state party figures, while James faces the challenge of Republicans' long drought in winning statewide offices despite Michigan's swing-state status and Donald Trump's 2024 presidential win there. Independent and third-party options register near zero support. Forecasters rate the contest Lean or Tilt Democratic heading into November, with the gap reflecting consistent polling margins and structural factors rather than recent volatility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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