Kentucky's 3rd congressional district, encompassing Louisville and surrounding Jefferson County areas, has delivered consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles, including the incumbent's 2024 win by roughly 24 points. Incumbent Morgan McGarvey secured the Democratic nomination without notable opposition in the May 2026 primary, while Republican nominee Maria Teresa Rodriguez emerged from a fragmented field. These results, combined with the district's urban demographics and voting history, underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at over 93 percent. A late national political shift, unexpected retirement, or significant scandal could narrow the gap, though structural factors make such reversals improbable ahead of the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$19,887 Vol.
$19,887 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
7%
$19,887 Vol.
$19,887 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$16,292 Vol.
94%
共和党
$3,595 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 3rd congressional district, encompassing Louisville and surrounding Jefferson County areas, has delivered consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles, including the incumbent's 2024 win by roughly 24 points. Incumbent Morgan McGarvey secured the Democratic nomination without notable opposition in the May 2026 primary, while Republican nominee Maria Teresa Rodriguez emerged from a fragmented field. These results, combined with the district's urban demographics and voting history, underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at over 93 percent. A late national political shift, unexpected retirement, or significant scandal could narrow the gap, though structural factors make such reversals improbable ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$19,887終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 3rd congressional district, encompassing Louisville and surrounding Jefferson County areas, has delivered consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles, including the incumbent's 2024 win by roughly 24 points. Incumbent Morgan McGarvey secured the Democratic nomination without notable opposition in the May 2026 primary, while Republican nominee Maria Teresa Rodriguez emerged from a fragmented field. These results, combined with the district's urban demographics and voting history, underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at over 93 percent. A late national political shift, unexpected retirement, or significant scandal could narrow the gap, though structural factors make such reversals improbable ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$19,887終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kentucky's 3rd congressional district, encompassing Louisville and surrounding Jefferson County areas, has delivered consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles, including the incumbent's 2024 win by roughly 24 points. Incumbent Morgan McGarvey secured the Democratic nomination without notable opposition in the May 2026 primary, while Republican nominee Maria Teresa Rodriguez emerged from a fragmented field. These results, combined with the district's urban demographics and voting history, underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at over 93 percent. A late national political shift, unexpected retirement, or significant scandal could narrow the gap, though structural factors make such reversals improbable ahead of the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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