Direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad concluded without agreement on April 12 after 21 hours, prolonging uncertainty over a permanent peace deal amid a fragile two-week ceasefire that began April 8 and is mediated by Pakistan. Core sticking points include US demands for zero uranium enrichment, dismantling of nuclear sites, a five-year missile program freeze, centrifuge monitoring, and curbs on proxy funding, contrasted by Iran's insistence on full sanctions relief, no structural limits on its programs, and guarantees against future military action. The Strait of Hormuz remains shuttered under a US blockade, escalating economic pressures. President Trump signaled a second round of negotiations could start within days, potentially extending the truce to bridge gaps in these high-stakes diplomatic efforts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$7,382,583 Vol.
2026/05/31
4月22日
21%
4月30日
37%
5月31日
59%
6月30日
69%
$7,382,583 Vol.
4月22日
$4,933,249 Vol.
21%
4月30日
$1,334,290 Vol.
37%
5月31日
$919,611 Vol.
59%
6月30日
$205,071 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad concluded without agreement on April 12 after 21 hours, prolonging uncertainty over a permanent peace deal amid a fragile two-week ceasefire that began April 8 and is mediated by Pakistan. Core sticking points include US demands for zero uranium enrichment, dismantling of nuclear sites, a five-year missile program freeze, centrifuge monitoring, and curbs on proxy funding, contrasted by Iran's insistence on full sanctions relief, no structural limits on its programs, and guarantees against future military action. The Strait of Hormuz remains shuttered under a US blockade, escalating economic pressures. President Trump signaled a second round of negotiations could start within days, potentially extending the truce to bridge gaps in these high-stakes diplomatic efforts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 12, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
音量
$7,382,583終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 12, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad concluded without agreement on April 12 after 21 hours, prolonging uncertainty over a permanent peace deal amid a fragile two-week ceasefire that began April 8 and is mediated by Pakistan. Core sticking points include US demands for zero uranium enrichment, dismantling of nuclear sites, a five-year missile program freeze, centrifuge monitoring, and curbs on proxy funding, contrasted by Iran's insistence on full sanctions relief, no structural limits on its programs, and guarantees against future military action. The Strait of Hormuz remains shuttered under a US blockade, escalating economic pressures. President Trump signaled a second round of negotiations could start within days, potentially extending the truce to bridge gaps in these high-stakes diplomatic efforts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$7,382,583終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 12, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad concluded without agreement on April 12 after 21 hours, prolonging uncertainty over a permanent peace deal amid a fragile two-week ceasefire that began April 8 and is mediated by Pakistan. Core sticking points include US demands for zero uranium enrichment, dismantling of nuclear sites, a five-year missile program freeze, centrifuge monitoring, and curbs on proxy funding, contrasted by Iran's insistence on full sanctions relief, no structural limits on its programs, and guarantees against future military action. The Strait of Hormuz remains shuttered under a US blockade, escalating economic pressures. President Trump signaled a second round of negotiations could start within days, potentially extending the truce to bridge gaps in these high-stakes diplomatic efforts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問