China has sustained military and coast guard pressure on Taiwan through 2026 via expanded grey-zone operations, including record vessel sightings around the island in July and routine air and maritime patrols, without crossing into invasion preparations. Beijing continues to prioritize incremental assertions of jurisdiction and political influence over direct conflict, consistent with statements emphasizing unification as a long-term goal amid ongoing U.S.-China diplomatic engagement under President Trump. Taiwan has responded by boosting defense spending above $30 billion, advancing drone and missile capabilities, and conducting combat-readiness drills, while traders weigh the steep economic and military costs of any full-scale operation. High implied probability on no invasion by year-end reflects this sustained pattern of coercion short of war. Remaining risks include miscalculation during exercises, sudden escalation tied to leadership statements, or shifts in U.S. policy that could alter deterrence calculations before December 31.