Incumbent Sen. Tom Cotton's landslide Republican primary win on March 3—securing 82% against minor challengers—has entrenched trader consensus at 93.5% for a GOP victory in Arkansas's safe Republican Senate seat, up for grabs on November 3. The state's deep-red tilt (Trump +31 in 2024), Cotton's incumbency advantage, massive fundraising lead ($9.7 million cash on hand versus Democrat Hallie Shoffner's $504,000), endorsements from President Trump and Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, and a February poll showing Cotton up 58-36% underscore this dominance, with Democrats last winning here in 2008. Scenarios like a major scandal, Cotton health issue, or unprecedented national Democratic midterm wave could shift odds, though structural GOP advantages loom large.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican
94%
Democrat
6%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican
$6,582 거래량
94%
Democrat
$1,764 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Tom Cotton's landslide Republican primary win on March 3—securing 82% against minor challengers—has entrenched trader consensus at 93.5% for a GOP victory in Arkansas's safe Republican Senate seat, up for grabs on November 3. The state's deep-red tilt (Trump +31 in 2024), Cotton's incumbency advantage, massive fundraising lead ($9.7 million cash on hand versus Democrat Hallie Shoffner's $504,000), endorsements from President Trump and Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, and a February poll showing Cotton up 58-36% underscore this dominance, with Democrats last winning here in 2008. Scenarios like a major scandal, Cotton health issue, or unprecedented national Democratic midterm wave could shift odds, though structural GOP advantages loom large.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
거래량
$8,346종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Tom Cotton's landslide Republican primary win on March 3—securing 82% against minor challengers—has entrenched trader consensus at 93.5% for a GOP victory in Arkansas's safe Republican Senate seat, up for grabs on November 3. The state's deep-red tilt (Trump +31 in 2024), Cotton's incumbency advantage, massive fundraising lead ($9.7 million cash on hand versus Democrat Hallie Shoffner's $504,000), endorsements from President Trump and Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, and a February poll showing Cotton up 58-36% underscore this dominance, with Democrats last winning here in 2008. Scenarios like a major scandal, Cotton health issue, or unprecedented national Democratic midterm wave could shift odds, though structural GOP advantages loom large.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$8,346종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. Tom Cotton's landslide Republican primary win on March 3—securing 82% against minor challengers—has entrenched trader consensus at 93.5% for a GOP victory in Arkansas's safe Republican Senate seat, up for grabs on November 3. The state's deep-red tilt (Trump +31 in 2024), Cotton's incumbency advantage, massive fundraising lead ($9.7 million cash on hand versus Democrat Hallie Shoffner's $504,000), endorsements from President Trump and Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, and a February poll showing Cotton up 58-36% underscore this dominance, with Democrats last winning here in 2008. Scenarios like a major scandal, Cotton health issue, or unprecedented national Democratic midterm wave could shift odds, though structural GOP advantages loom large.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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