Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton’s strong position in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race stems from the state’s consistent Republican lean in federal contests, his established record since 2013, and easy primary wins that unified the party behind him ahead of November. Democratic nominee Hallie Shoffner secured her nomination but faces structural challenges in a state where Republicans have dominated recent Senate and statewide results. Forecasters rate the contest as safe or solid Republican, aligning with trader pricing that assigns overwhelming probability to the GOP nominee. Late developments capable of shifting odds remain limited but could include a major scandal, Cotton health concerns, or an unexpected national political realignment that boosts Democratic turnout.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$11,046 거래량
$11,046 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican
95%
Democrat
4%
$11,046 거래량
$11,046 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican
$8,099 거래량
95%
Democrat
$2,947 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton’s strong position in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race stems from the state’s consistent Republican lean in federal contests, his established record since 2013, and easy primary wins that unified the party behind him ahead of November. Democratic nominee Hallie Shoffner secured her nomination but faces structural challenges in a state where Republicans have dominated recent Senate and statewide results. Forecasters rate the contest as safe or solid Republican, aligning with trader pricing that assigns overwhelming probability to the GOP nominee. Late developments capable of shifting odds remain limited but could include a major scandal, Cotton health concerns, or an unexpected national political realignment that boosts Democratic turnout.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
거래량
$11,046종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton’s strong position in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race stems from the state’s consistent Republican lean in federal contests, his established record since 2013, and easy primary wins that unified the party behind him ahead of November. Democratic nominee Hallie Shoffner secured her nomination but faces structural challenges in a state where Republicans have dominated recent Senate and statewide results. Forecasters rate the contest as safe or solid Republican, aligning with trader pricing that assigns overwhelming probability to the GOP nominee. Late developments capable of shifting odds remain limited but could include a major scandal, Cotton health concerns, or an unexpected national political realignment that boosts Democratic turnout.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$11,046종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton’s strong position in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race stems from the state’s consistent Republican lean in federal contests, his established record since 2013, and easy primary wins that unified the party behind him ahead of November. Democratic nominee Hallie Shoffner secured her nomination but faces structural challenges in a state where Republicans have dominated recent Senate and statewide results. Forecasters rate the contest as safe or solid Republican, aligning with trader pricing that assigns overwhelming probability to the GOP nominee. Late developments capable of shifting odds remain limited but could include a major scandal, Cotton health concerns, or an unexpected national political realignment that boosts Democratic turnout.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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