Trader consensus heavily favors zero Democratic Senate incumbents losing their 2026 primaries (80%), reflecting the strong incumbency advantage in U.S. Senate races, where primary defeats are rare absent major scandals or retirements. Nine incumbents—Hickenlooper (CO), Coons (DE), Ossoff (GA), Markey (MA), Booker (NJ), Luján (NM), Merkley (OR), Reed (RI), and Warner (VA)—seek renomination, many as presumptive nominees with minimal opposition after filing deadlines. Recent Suffolk University polling (April 2026) shows Markey leading his Massachusetts primary by 17 points, while early contests like Illinois' March 17 open-seat primary (won by Juliana Stratton) produced no upsets. Four incumbents retired, shrinking the pool, with upcoming primaries in Oregon (May 19) and elsewhere unlikely to yield surprises absent late developments. A single upset (11%) accounts for minor challengers like those eyeing Merkley or Luján.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트0 70%
1 20.1%
3 4.2%
4 3.9%
신규
신규
0
83%
1
11%
2
2%
3
4%
4
4%
>4
3%
0 70%
1 20.1%
3 4.2%
4 3.9%
신규
신규
0
$1,254 거래량
83%
1
$1,195 거래량
11%
2
$584 거래량
2%
3
$263 거래량
4%
4
$289 거래량
4%
>4
$193 거래량
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus heavily favors zero Democratic Senate incumbents losing their 2026 primaries (80%), reflecting the strong incumbency advantage in U.S. Senate races, where primary defeats are rare absent major scandals or retirements. Nine incumbents—Hickenlooper (CO), Coons (DE), Ossoff (GA), Markey (MA), Booker (NJ), Luján (NM), Merkley (OR), Reed (RI), and Warner (VA)—seek renomination, many as presumptive nominees with minimal opposition after filing deadlines. Recent Suffolk University polling (April 2026) shows Markey leading his Massachusetts primary by 17 points, while early contests like Illinois' March 17 open-seat primary (won by Juliana Stratton) produced no upsets. Four incumbents retired, shrinking the pool, with upcoming primaries in Oregon (May 19) and elsewhere unlikely to yield surprises absent late developments. A single upset (11%) accounts for minor challengers like those eyeing Merkley or Luján.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
마켓 개설일: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
거래량
$3,777마켓 개설일
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus heavily favors zero Democratic Senate incumbents losing their 2026 primaries (80%), reflecting the strong incumbency advantage in U.S. Senate races, where primary defeats are rare absent major scandals or retirements. Nine incumbents—Hickenlooper (CO), Coons (DE), Ossoff (GA), Markey (MA), Booker (NJ), Luján (NM), Merkley (OR), Reed (RI), and Warner (VA)—seek renomination, many as presumptive nominees with minimal opposition after filing deadlines. Recent Suffolk University polling (April 2026) shows Markey leading his Massachusetts primary by 17 points, while early contests like Illinois' March 17 open-seat primary (won by Juliana Stratton) produced no upsets. Four incumbents retired, shrinking the pool, with upcoming primaries in Oregon (May 19) and elsewhere unlikely to yield surprises absent late developments. A single upset (11%) accounts for minor challengers like those eyeing Merkley or Luján.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
거래량
$3,777마켓 개설일
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors zero Democratic Senate incumbents losing their 2026 primaries (80%), reflecting the strong incumbency advantage in U.S. Senate races, where primary defeats are rare absent major scandals or retirements. Nine incumbents—Hickenlooper (CO), Coons (DE), Ossoff (GA), Markey (MA), Booker (NJ), Luján (NM), Merkley (OR), Reed (RI), and Warner (VA)—seek renomination, many as presumptive nominees with minimal opposition after filing deadlines. Recent Suffolk University polling (April 2026) shows Markey leading his Massachusetts primary by 17 points, while early contests like Illinois' March 17 open-seat primary (won by Juliana Stratton) produced no upsets. Four incumbents retired, shrinking the pool, with upcoming primaries in Oregon (May 19) and elsewhere unlikely to yield surprises absent late developments. A single upset (11%) accounts for minor challengers like those eyeing Merkley or Luján.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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