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정치·글로벌 선거

베를린 주 선거 승자

Market icon
정치·글로벌 선거

베를린 주 선거 승자

CDU 57%

그뤼네 15.2%

링케 12%

AfD 9.2%

Polymarket

$2,572,578 거래량

CDU 57%

그뤼네 15.2%

링케 12%

AfD 9.2%

Polymarket

$2,572,578 거래량

CDU가 2026년 베를린 주의회 선거에서 최다 의석을 차지할까요? icon

CDU

$15,140 거래량

57%

그뤼네가 2026년 베를린 주 선거에서 최다 의석을 차지할까요? icon

그뤼네

$27,805 거래량

15%

링케가 2026년 베를린 주 선거에서 최다 의석을 차지할까요? icon

링케

$11,555 거래량

12%

AfD가 2026년 베를린 주 선거에서 최다 의석을 차지할까요? icon

AfD

$2,187,196 거래량

9%

SPD가 2026년 베를린 주의회 선거에서 최다 의석을 차지할까요? icon

SPD

$287,320 거래량

8%

BSW가 2026년 베를린 주 의회 선거에서 최다 의석을 차지할 것인가? icon

BSW

$26,261 거래량

1%

2026년 베를린 주 의회 선거에서 FDP가 가장 많은 의석을 차지할까요? icon

FDP

$10,274 거래량

<1%

FW가 2026년 베를린 주의회 선거에서 최다 의석을 차지할까요? icon

FW

$7,026 거래량

<1%

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/) Trader consensus favors CDU at 57.5% to win the Berlin state election on September 20, 2026, reflecting its incumbency advantage under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner in the CDU-SPD grand coalition senate. Recent INSA polling from April 7–14 shows CDU leading at 21%, narrowly ahead of AfD and SPD at 17% each, Grüne and Linke at 15%, with BSW at 4% and FDP at 3%; poll averages like dawum.de's Wahltrend confirm this ~5-point edge amid a fragmented five-way race. National CDU momentum and consistent state leads drive optimism, though odds exceed aggregator trends showing a tighter contest, underscoring uncertainty until coalition negotiations post-election. No major shifts in the past week, with district council votes concurrent.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
거래량
$2,572,578
종료일
2026.09.20
마켓 개설일
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/) Trader consensus favors CDU at 57.5% to win the Berlin state election on September 20, 2026, reflecting its incumbency advantage under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner in the CDU-SPD grand coalition senate. Recent INSA polling from April 7–14 shows CDU leading at 21%, narrowly ahead of AfD and SPD at 17% each, Grüne and Linke at 15%, with BSW at 4% and FDP at 3%; poll averages like dawum.de's Wahltrend confirm this ~5-point edge amid a fragmented five-way race. National CDU momentum and consistent state leads drive optimism, though odds exceed aggregator trends showing a tighter contest, underscoring uncertainty until coalition negotiations post-election. No major shifts in the past week, with district council votes concurrent.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
거래량
$2,572,578
종료일
2026.09.20
마켓 개설일
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)

외부 링크에 주의하세요.

자주 묻는 질문

"베를린 주 선거 승자"은 8개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 57%의 "CDU"이며, 이어서 15%의 "그뤼네"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 57¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 57%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

오늘 현재 "베를린 주 선거 승자"은 총 $2.6 million의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Dec 2, 2025에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.

"베를린 주 선거 승자"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 8개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

"베를린 주 선거 승자"의 현재 유력 후보는 57%의 "CDU"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 57%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 15%의 "그뤼네"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.

"베를린 주 선거 승자"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.