Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing for President Trump's Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh, scheduled for April 21, has sharpened trader focus on GOP unity in their 53-seat majority, with consensus probabilities clustered tightly around 51-58 yea votes reflecting uncertainty over potential defections. Sen. Thom Tillis's ongoing hold, linked to a DOJ probe into Jerome Powell's Fed building renovations, poses the primary risk of delays or fewer than 51 yeas, while Warsh's recent $130 million asset disclosure—including blockchain holdings—raises conflict questions. Optimism from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and supportive senators like Pete Ricketts keeps higher tallies viable, but resolution of Tillis's concerns or strong hearing performance could push toward 54-55, separating frontrunners before Powell's May 15 term end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트54 31.3%
60+ 28%
58 26.9%
12월 31일까지 투표 없음/지명 철회 22.9%
$62,740 거래량
$62,740 거래량
2026.12.31
≤49
23%
50
4%
51
27%
52
23%
53
12%
54
31%
55
27%
56
2%
57
20%
58
27%
59
1%
60+
20%
12월 31일까지 투표 없음/지명 철회
23%
54 31.3%
60+ 28%
58 26.9%
12월 31일까지 투표 없음/지명 철회 22.9%
$62,740 거래량
$62,740 거래량
2026.12.31
≤49
$20,988 거래량
23%
50
$0 거래량
4%
51
$226 거래량
27%
52
$0 거래량
23%
53
$221 거래량
12%
54
$233 거래량
31%
55
$0 거래량
27%
56
$52 거래량
2%
57
$0 거래량
20%
58
$0 거래량
27%
59
$388 거래량
1%
60+
$40,632 거래량
20%
12월 31일까지 투표 없음/지명 철회
$0 거래량
23%
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing for President Trump's Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh, scheduled for April 21, has sharpened trader focus on GOP unity in their 53-seat majority, with consensus probabilities clustered tightly around 51-58 yea votes reflecting uncertainty over potential defections. Sen. Thom Tillis's ongoing hold, linked to a DOJ probe into Jerome Powell's Fed building renovations, poses the primary risk of delays or fewer than 51 yeas, while Warsh's recent $130 million asset disclosure—including blockchain holdings—raises conflict questions. Optimism from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and supportive senators like Pete Ricketts keeps higher tallies viable, but resolution of Tillis's concerns or strong hearing performance could push toward 54-55, separating frontrunners before Powell's May 15 term end.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
거래량
$62,740종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing for President Trump's Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh, scheduled for April 21, has sharpened trader focus on GOP unity in their 53-seat majority, with consensus probabilities clustered tightly around 51-58 yea votes reflecting uncertainty over potential defections. Sen. Thom Tillis's ongoing hold, linked to a DOJ probe into Jerome Powell's Fed building renovations, poses the primary risk of delays or fewer than 51 yeas, while Warsh's recent $130 million asset disclosure—including blockchain holdings—raises conflict questions. Optimism from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and supportive senators like Pete Ricketts keeps higher tallies viable, but resolution of Tillis's concerns or strong hearing performance could push toward 54-55, separating frontrunners before Powell's May 15 term end.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$62,740종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing for President Trump's Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh, scheduled for April 21, has sharpened trader focus on GOP unity in their 53-seat majority, with consensus probabilities clustered tightly around 51-58 yea votes reflecting uncertainty over potential defections. Sen. Thom Tillis's ongoing hold, linked to a DOJ probe into Jerome Powell's Fed building renovations, poses the primary risk of delays or fewer than 51 yeas, while Warsh's recent $130 million asset disclosure—including blockchain holdings—raises conflict questions. Optimism from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and supportive senators like Pete Ricketts keeps higher tallies viable, but resolution of Tillis's concerns or strong hearing performance could push toward 54-55, separating frontrunners before Powell's May 15 term end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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