Direct Israel-Lebanon talks launched in Washington on April 14, 2026, aim to secure a durable ceasefire in the war with Hezbollah, which resumed March 2 amid heightened cross-border strikes and Israeli offensives in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem urged Lebanon's government to abandon the negotiations on April 13, rejecting any direct Israeli engagement, while Israeli airstrikes killed at least 10 in recent days, including emergency workers. A fragile US-Iran truce excludes this front, preserving escalation risks from ongoing Hezbollah rocket barrages and Israeli responses. Outcomes hinge on summit progress, potential disarmament demands on Hezbollah, and de-escalation signals before any formal agreement.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$10,444,809 거래량
2026.06.30
4월 15일
3%
4월 30일
72%
6월 30일
84%
$10,444,809 거래량
4월 15일
$7,065,704 거래량
3%
4월 30일
$2,659,823 거래량
72%
6월 30일
$344,107 거래량
84%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Direct Israel-Lebanon talks launched in Washington on April 14, 2026, aim to secure a durable ceasefire in the war with Hezbollah, which resumed March 2 amid heightened cross-border strikes and Israeli offensives in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem urged Lebanon's government to abandon the negotiations on April 13, rejecting any direct Israeli engagement, while Israeli airstrikes killed at least 10 in recent days, including emergency workers. A fragile US-Iran truce excludes this front, preserving escalation risks from ongoing Hezbollah rocket barrages and Israeli responses. Outcomes hinge on summit progress, potential disarmament demands on Hezbollah, and de-escalation signals before any formal agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
마켓 개설일: Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
거래량
$10,444,809종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Direct Israel-Lebanon talks launched in Washington on April 14, 2026, aim to secure a durable ceasefire in the war with Hezbollah, which resumed March 2 amid heightened cross-border strikes and Israeli offensives in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem urged Lebanon's government to abandon the negotiations on April 13, rejecting any direct Israeli engagement, while Israeli airstrikes killed at least 10 in recent days, including emergency workers. A fragile US-Iran truce excludes this front, preserving escalation risks from ongoing Hezbollah rocket barrages and Israeli responses. Outcomes hinge on summit progress, potential disarmament demands on Hezbollah, and de-escalation signals before any formal agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
거래량
$10,444,809종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Direct Israel-Lebanon talks launched in Washington on April 14, 2026, aim to secure a durable ceasefire in the war with Hezbollah, which resumed March 2 amid heightened cross-border strikes and Israeli offensives in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem urged Lebanon's government to abandon the negotiations on April 13, rejecting any direct Israeli engagement, while Israeli airstrikes killed at least 10 in recent days, including emergency workers. A fragile US-Iran truce excludes this front, preserving escalation risks from ongoing Hezbollah rocket barrages and Israeli responses. Outcomes hinge on summit progress, potential disarmament demands on Hezbollah, and de-escalation signals before any formal agreement.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문